21760 Shady Trail Rd · Chandler, TX 75758

$145,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2020 1,917 sqft lot $120/sqft · 34% below area Est $221k · 34% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 2020 single-wide manufactured home located in the Westwood Beach subdivision in Chandler. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,216 square feet of comfortable living space with a functional layout and a clean, move-in ready feel. The home has been well cared for and is ideal for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near Lake Palestine with easy access to Chandler and surrounding areas.

Key facts

• 1,917 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2020

Tags

• LAKE PALESTINE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($177/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#347 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,904
• List price: $145,900
• Delta: -33.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21605 Sundown Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	4mo	$70,000	$57	86
955 Beachside Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,310 (+8%)	10mo	$249,900	$191	68
1260 Shoreline Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	21mo	$295,000	$256	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-22,679
• Equity at exit: $21,754

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-18,447
• Equity at exit: $12,615

Cash invested: $40,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,032/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,281

Max offer price $145,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $56	+0% $15	+5% $-27	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-37	+0% $15	+5% $66	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $52	base $15	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,475
• Closing costs: $4,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Farm to Market 315 Unit 2 Chandler, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,900 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,900 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    listed $145,900 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Well-maintained 2020 single-wide manufactured home located in the Westwood Beach subdivision in Chandler. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,216 square feet of comfortable living space with a functional layout and a clean, move-in ready feel. The home has been well cared for and is ideal for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near Lake Palestine with easy access to Chandler and surrounding areas.

17. 2023-01-09
    soldstatus
18. 2022-10-17
    listed $109,500 Active
19. 2022-08-10
    status Active
20. 2022-07-19
    status Pending
21. 2022-07-06
    price $110,000
22. 2022-06-06
    price $120,000
23. 2022-04-12
    price $129,000
24. 2022-03-21
    listed $135,000 Active
25. 2022-02-23
    historical
26. 2021-12-18
    listed $129,000 Active
27. 2021-12-16
    historical
28. 2021-11-15
    price $139,000
29. 2021-11-09
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,032 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,670 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$638/yr (+$53/mo · 31.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,173
• − Property taxes: −$2,032
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,244
• Taxable loss: −$2,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$547
• After-tax cash flow: $724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #7634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $145,900 NTREIS
• 2023-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-17 Listed $109,500 NTREIS
• 2022-08-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-07-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-06 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2022-04-12 Price Changed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-21 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2022-02-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-12-18 Listed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2021-12-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-11-15 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2021-11-09 Listed $149,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+46.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,032 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.