3520 Stony Point Rd · Niagara Falls, NY 14072

$219,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,953 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1951 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price improvement to reflect needed updates. Rare opportunity to own a home on a full 1-acre lot in the heart of Grand Island. Property is being sold as-is and offers incredible potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to customize. Spacious lot, strong location, and room to add value — a unique chance to create something special.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• First-floor bedrooms
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• NIAGARA RIVER
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOMS
• HOME OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Grand Island Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #263 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Charlotte Sidway School (471 students, 21% FRL); Veronica E Connor Middle School (math 32% / reading 53%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 679 students, 28% FRL); Grand Island Senior High School (math 95% / reading 72%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 868 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $220k implies a 389% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $206,799 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $458,955
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5258 E River Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,126 (+9%)	19mo	$500,000	$235	46
3226 Stony Point Rd	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,672 (-14%)	21mo	$260,000	$156	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,397
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $15,314
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14072

• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$495 /mo · $5,936/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,203

Max offer price $219,999

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $393	+0% $331	+5% $269	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $227	+0% $331	+5% $434	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $387	base $331	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   price $219,999
3. 2025-12-01
   listed $249,000 Active
4. 2014-10-15
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,936 · $495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,936 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,936
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,517
• − Management: −$2,517
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$160
• After-tax cash flow: $3,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Island Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607020
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,014
• Composite: 49.92/100
• National rank: #1938
• State rank: #263 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,488
• Household income: $115,991
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 283.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.87%
• Current HPI: 332.5322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+388.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $219,999 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $249,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,936 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.