17462 Front Beach Rd 51 A Rd Unit 51A · Panama City Beach, FL 32413

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Condo · 703 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition $260/sqft · 8% below area Est $272k · 8% under $631/mo HOA · 32% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE PRICE REDUCTION!! Do not miss this opportunity!! Welcome to the gated community of Horizon South. The location of Horizon South is unmatched with only a short walk to emerald waters of The World's Most Beautiful Beaches. It's also conveniently located only 2.5 miles to Pier Park, Frank Brown Park , Aaron Bessant Park and the new Dolly Parton's Pirates Voyage Dinner Show! Horizon South offers so many onsite amenities such as 4 outdoor pools (one heated in the winter), kiddie pool, hot tub, tennis courts, shuffle board courts, basketball court, horseshoe pits, and an onsite 18 hole mini golf course. Horizon South is also located only 12 miles from Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport and is only a 15 minute drive to Inlet Beach, 30A, Rosemary Beach, Seacrest Beach, and Alys Beach. Along with the great location, you will love this unit. At Horizon South you will not feel like you are stuffed into a box like a typical condo. Your parking is only a couple steps away from your condo. You will love the privacy of the patio and the exterior storage closet for your sandy beach chairs and floats! The open floor plan feels very cozy inside and with the high ceilings, the condo feels much larger. The lower floor features a spacious living room, dining area, full kitchen, bedroom, bath and laundry closet. The upper floor features a second bedroom, bath, closet AND an owner's closet. The kitchen features a refrigerator (new), flat cooktop stove/oven, built-in microwave, dishwasher and garbage disposal. The bedrooms are large enough to fit double sets of bunk beds if you choose. Short term rentals are allowed so put it on your rental portfolio and let it pay for itself while you use it between guests!

Key facts

• mini golf course
• hot tub
• tennis courts

Tags

• HORIZON SOUTH GATED COMMUNITY
• SHORT WALK TO EMERALD WATERS
• ONSITE AMENITIES: POOLS
• HOT TUB
• TENNIS COURTS
• MINI GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-800 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (46.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 1.8% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Bay Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 313 students, 50% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1470 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 703 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,190 (46.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 703 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.71%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,049
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -8.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17545 Front Beach Rd Unit 2104	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+19%)	0mo	$400,000	$349	68
17545 Front Beach Rd Unit 1905	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+19%)	0mo	$415,000	$362	68
17545 Front Beach Rd Unit 2004	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+19%)	0mo	$472,500	$412	68
17462 Front Beach 5d5 Rd Unit 5D5	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,150 (+20%)	1mo	$275,000	$239	68
17545 Front Beach Rd Unit 402	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+19%)	1mo	$488,000	$426	67
17545 Front Beach Rd #1208	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+19%)	1mo	$458,000	$400	67
17462 Front Bch #57204	0.07mi	1/1.5 (-1)	770 (-20%)	0mo	$229,000	$297	65
17643 Front Beach Rd #1709	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,173 (+22%)	1mo	$590,000	$503	55
17751 Panama City Beach Pkwy Unit 2E	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	0mo	$225,000	$205	54
16819 Front Beach Rd Unit 2112	1.14mi	1/2.0 (-1)	923 (-4%)	0mo	$400,000	$433	53
16701 Front Beach Rd #405	1.24mi	1/2.0 (-1)	914 (-5%)	1mo	$395,250	$432	51
16819 Front Beach Rd #214	1.14mi	2/3.0	1,131 (+18%)	0mo	$504,000	$446	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-95,810
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.37×
• Total profit: $-166,069
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 6 under contract
• Median asking: $270,000 ($281/sqft)
• Median days on market: 210 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1470
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$631
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-800

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,985

Max offer price $134,190

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-627	-5% $-713	+0% $-800	+5% $-886	+10% $-972
Rent	-10% $-955	-5% $-878	+0% $-800	+5% $-722	+10% $-644
Rate	-1.0pp $-674	-0.5pp $-736	base $-800	+0.5pp $-864	+1.0pp $-930

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17462 Front Beach Rd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	70d	1	0.09mi
17614 Front Beach Rd Unit 16D Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,600	$2.14	70d	1	0.36mi
17225 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,719	$1.75	62d	10	0.55mi
17751 Panama City Beach Pkwy Unit 1523371P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$3,862	$3.52	70d	1	0.56mi
17751 Panama City Beach Pkwy Unit 2E Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,600	$2.36	70d	1	0.57mi
102 Cabana Cay Cir Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,143	$2.26	62d	26	0.59mi
17729 Front Beach Rd Unit 1355005P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	2.0	882	$2,038	$2.31	62d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail $631/mo · $7,572/yr condo

• Likely covers: watertrashpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 703 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 702 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $249,900 Active 701 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $249,900 Active 700 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 699 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 698 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 695 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $249,900 Active 694 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $249,900 Active 693 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 691 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $249,900 Active 689 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 687 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 686 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 685 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 682 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 680 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 679 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $249,900 Active 678 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 677 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 676 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $249,900 Active 675 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 674 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 673 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 672 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 671 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,900 Active 670 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 669 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 668 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 667 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    price $249,900 Active 666 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 666 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 665 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 664 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $275,000 Active 663 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 662 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 661 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $275,000 Active 660 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $275,000 Active 658 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $275,000 Active 656 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $275,000 Active 655 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $275,000 Active 653 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $275,000 Active 652 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $275,000 Active 651 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $275,000 Active 650 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $275,000 Active 649 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $275,000 Active 647 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $275,000 Active 646 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $275,000 Active 644 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 643 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 642 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − HOA: −$7,572
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$13,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,349
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,800–$14,400 screening

This well-maintained, move-in-ready condo in Horizon South offers a good investment opportunity with minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Update flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can brighten the space and add value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the bathroom's functionality and aesthetics. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary West Bay Elementary School C FL #892/2,144 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle Surfside Middle School B FL #148/571 Nat'l #2,008/14,009 High J.r. Arnold High School D FL #204/667 Nat'l #6,282/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $275,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $298,500 CPARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listed $299,500 CPARMLS