12125 Lake Blvd #65 · Redding, CA 96003

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $88k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this well maintained affordable 2bedroom/2 bathroom located in the family friendly Park Villa Mobile Estates, including a clubhouse and pool. This home offers a split floor plan, spacious living room, a 2-car attached carport, and has an indoor laundry room. Home backs up to a greenbelt. Park Approval is required.

Key facts

• Deck off the carport
• Fenced yard
• Sense of privacy

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• DECK OFF THE CARPORT
• FENCED YARD
• SENSE OF PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $85k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.90%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12125 Lake Blvd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,428 (-11%)	1mo	$78,000	$55	82
1450 Calexico Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-4%)	1mo	$60,000	$39	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $41,707
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $123,400
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $652

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	43d	1	0.90mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   price $85,000
3. 2026-01-29
   listed $94,000 Active
4. 2025-12-09
   price $94,000
5. 2025-09-11
   price $99,000
6. 2025-07-25
   listed $110,000 Active
7. 2020-12-30
   soldstatus $48,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Don't miss out on this well maintained affordable 2bedroom/2 bathroom located in the family friendly Park Villa Mobile Estates, including a clubhouse and pool. This home offers a split floor plan, spacious living room, a 2-car attached carport, and has an indoor laundry room. Home backs up to a greenbelt. Park Approval is required.

8. 2020-11-16
   listed $48,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Don't miss out on this well maintained affordable 2bedroom/2 bathroom located in the family friendly Park Villa Mobile Estates, including a clubhouse and pool. This home offers a split floor plan, spacious living room, a 2-car attached carport, and has an indoor laundry room. Home backs up to a greenbelt. Park Approval is required.

9. 2019-09-12
   listed $59,500
10. 2017-10-05
    soldstatus $37,000
11. 2017-08-06
    listed $40,000
12. 2017-08-03
    soldstatus $52,000
13. 2016-05-13
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$242/yr (+$20/mo · 59.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,064
• After-tax cash flow: $7,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+54.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $85,000 SAOR
• 2026-01-29 Listed $94,000 SAOR
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $94,000 SAOR
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $99,000 SAOR
• 2025-07-25 Listed $110,000 SAOR
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) $48,000 SAOR
• 2020-11-16 Listed $48,000 SAOR
• 2019-09-12 Listed $59,500 SAOR
• 2017-10-05 Sold (MLS) $37,000 SAOR
• 2017-08-06 Listed $40,000 SAOR
• 2017-08-03 Sold (MLS) $52,000 SAOR
• 2016-05-13 Listed $55,000 SAOR

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2020): $404 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.