5039 Evergreen Dr N #6 · Hugo, MN 55038

$210,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 923 sqft · Townhouse public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2006 0.88 ac lot $228/sqft · at area comps Est $205k · at est. $347/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful, private views overlooking a beautiful pasture and nature in this 2 bed, 2 bath townhome situated on a premium lot! You’ll love the community amenities including a pool, playground, clubhouse, basketball court, walking paths, and fitness center all at an amazing price!

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community amenities
• Premium lot

Tags

• PRIVATE VIEWS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• PREMIUM LOT
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is 0.88 acres (common dimensions); roads maintained by association; Common driveway/frontage on city street
• HOA & community: HOA named 'HOA Living'; Monthly association fee of $347; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, sewer, shared amenities, snow removal and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Entry level on main floor
• Construction: Block foundation; Roof is older than 8 years
• Exterior features: Deck; Stone and vinyl exterior; Shared in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Kitchen sized to fit eat-in dining
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen window; In-ground sprinkler; Shared amenities including amusement/party room, clubhouse, community room, exercise room and play area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookups; Laundry closet on upper level; Second-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-333/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $203,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,474
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: 2.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-35,606
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-32,504
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,104/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$347
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $205,093

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $32	+0% $-28	+5% $-87	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-112	+0% $-28	+5% $56	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $26	base $-28	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,330	$2.42	0d	1	0.66mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit J Hugo, MN	1.0	1.0	850	$1,845	$2.17	4d	1	1.10mi
15865 Goodview Ave N Unit D Hugo, MN	1.0	1.0	850	$1,845	$2.17	25d	1	1.10mi
15853 Goodview Ave N Unit L Hugo, MN	2.0	1.0	960	$1,995	$2.08	45d	1	1.10mi
15865 Goodview Ave N Unit A Hugo, MN	2.0	1.0	960	$1,995	$2.08	25d	1	1.10mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit D Hugo, MN	2.0	1.0	1060	$2,150	$2.03	19d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $347 · $4,164/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $210,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $215,000 Active 290-char remark
17. 2016-12-29
    historical
18. 2016-11-01
    listed $124,900 Active
19. 2016-11-01
    historical
20. 2016-09-06
    listed $124,900 Active
21. 2010-11-01
    historical
22. 2009-11-10
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$124/yr (+$10/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,104
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − HOA: −$4,164
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+180.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $210,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $215,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-01 Listed $124,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-06 Listed $124,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-10 Listed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,104 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.