211 Cole Rd · Loch Sheldrake, NY 12747

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1999 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the heart of the Catskills! Nestled on 1.25 beautiful private acres in desirable Hurleyville, this charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. With 1,456 sq ft of living space, the home features a spacious and functional layout, generously sized bedrooms, a large primary suite with private bath, bright eat-in kitchen, central air, and forced hot air heat for year-round comfort. Enjoy peaceful mornings surrounded by nature and relaxing evenings in your own private country setting, while still being just minutes from shopping, restaurants, schools, and major roadways. The property offers plenty of outdoor space

Key facts

• Private acres
• Outdoor space
• 1.25 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• BRIGHT EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• YEAR-ROUND RECREATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (NYSEG); Natural gas connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured on land (double wide)
• Construction: Double wide manufactured home; Dormer attic; Property condition: Actual
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Propane heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tri-Valley Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 462 students, 50% FRL); Tri-Valley Secondary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 435 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 28% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $249k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $176,473 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $116,630
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $358,408
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12747

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,393/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $196,325

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-228	+0% $-298	+5% $-369	+10% $-439
Rent	-10% $-438	-5% $-368	+0% $-298	+5% $-228	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-173	-0.5pp $-235	base $-298	+0.5pp $-363	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $249,000 Active 1282-char remark
18. 2014-10-10
    historical
19. 2014-10-10
    historical
20. 2014-09-10
    listed
21. 2014-09-10
    listed $129,000
22. 2003-08-29
    soldstatus $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,393 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,801 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,393
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$8,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,930
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Loch Sheldrake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #15202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,036
• Population (ZIP): 2,036

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 10% Scotch-Irish 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.46%
• Current HPI: 504.332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+211.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-10 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2014-09-10 Listed $129,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-10 Listed — HGMLS
• 2003-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,393 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.