572 Birchwood Dr · Petaluma, CA 94954

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $264k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 572 Birchwood Drive in The Cottages of Petaluma, a desirable 55+ community. This clean, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,537 square feet with a bright, functional floor plan and vaulted ceilings that create an open, airy feel throughout. The home features spacious living areas, abundant natural light, new appliances, updated toilets, and comfortable bedrooms. A welcoming front deck provides the perfect spot to relax and enjoy the peaceful neighborhood setting. Conveniently located within the park near community amenities, residents enjoy access to the clubhouse, pool and spa, fitness center, library, bocce court, and beautifully maintained grounds. Clos

Key facts

• Front deck
• Fitness center
• Bocce court

Tags

• FRONT DECK
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL AND SPA
• FITNESS CENTER
• LIBRARY
• BOCCE COURT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $1,827
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Original condition; Made by SILVERCREST / DELAWARE WESTERN HOMES CORP
• Construction: Skirt: Other
• Exterior features: Located in a park community; Land lease in effect

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Great room; Formal dining room; Skylight(s); Island in kitchen; Breakfast area
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 2.3% in Petaluma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in CA, #1,161 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Petaluma Joint Union High (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #112 of 517 in CA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 61 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.35%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,364
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Candlewood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-12%)	14mo	$180,000	$133	65
118 Candlewood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-14%)	11mo	$150,000	$113	64
93 W Napa Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-0%)	2mo	$181,100	$118	60
518 Vina Rose Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+2%)	5mo	$234,460	$150	57
6 N Napa Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+4%)	4mo	$300,500	$189	56
43 E Napa Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+1%)	10mo	$180,000	$116	56
5 N Napa Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (+0%)	6mo	$317,000	$206	55
57 W Napa Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-6%)	2mo	$315,000	$218	51
82 W Napa Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+3%)	14mo	$335,000	$212	50
1546 Royal Oak Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-13%)	13mo	$245,000	$182	49
594 Sonoma Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-11%)	8mo	$235,000	$172	41
1007 N Napa Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	11mo	$195,000	$135	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $59,302
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $145,864
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94954

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $807/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $1,526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1453 Capri Ave Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$3,200	$2.34	13d	1	0.23mi
495 N McDowell Blvd Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$3,432	$3.34	1d	3	0.43mi
132 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,895	$2.74	13d	1	0.95mi
1412 Mauro Pietro Dr #201 Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$2,950	$2.53	13d	1	0.95mi
55 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,548	$3.71	13d	6	1.27mi
1729 Kearny St Petaluma, CA	4.0	2.0	1560	$3,800	$2.44	13d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $807 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$599/yr (+$50/mo · 74.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$807
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,208
• − Management: −$3,208
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $16,212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,891
• After-tax cash flow: $14,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petaluma Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630250
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $78,473
• Composite: 47.11/100
• National rank: #2329
• State rank: #112 of 517 in CA

Livability — Petaluma

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1161

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petaluma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 71,359
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,574
• Household income: $113,527
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1421.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -813.92%
• Current HPI: 245.4729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $185,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $807 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.