3621 Doniphan Ave · St. Joseph, MO 64507

$89,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Land public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1056 square foot single family home has 2 bedrooms and 2.0 bathrooms. This home is located at 3621 Doniphan Ave, Saint Joseph, MO 64507.

Key facts

• Built 1972
• Listed 36 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($979 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.34%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-777
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $16,935
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64507

• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $611/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $706

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3128 Midland St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1104	$975	$0.88	43d	1	1.08mi
3303 S 35th St St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	782	$925	$1.18	3d	3	1.15mi
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	43d	1	1.41mi
3215 S 42nd St St Joseph, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$800	$0.73	16d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,500 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,500 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,500 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $89,500 Active 141-char remark
17. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus
18. 1995-11-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$611
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$940
• − Management: −$940
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $1,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$286
• After-tax cash flow: $2,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 14,159

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.49%
• Current HPI: 165.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $89,500 FSBO.com
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $611 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.