153 Morris Rd · Saw Creek, PA 18302

$248,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2023 10,018 sqft lot Est $215k · 15% over $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Be the first to own this newly constructed ranch home in the desirable Monroe Lakes community in the beautiful Pocono Mountains. Currently finishing the final touches, this charming home offers comfortable one-floor living with 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bath. Inside, you'll find a large living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with an eat-in kitchen designed for everyday comfort and convenience. The nicely sized bedrooms provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front porch and side deck, ideal for relaxing, grilling, or entertaining guests. Situated on a nice-sized lot with room to make it your own, the property al

Key facts

• Newly constructed
• Covered front porch
• One-floor living

Tags

• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED
• MONROE LAKES COMMUNITY
• ONE-FLOOR LIVING
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse; Annual association fee: $731 (about $60.92/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel on-site parking; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service; Propane
• Home design: Single-family house; New construction; No common walls
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Front covered porch; Deck; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air; Heat pump (heating and cooling); Propane heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Basement: concrete and crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $248k).
• Recommended offer: $244k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $248k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $244,280 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.84%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,920
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
770 Rosewood Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	961 (-11%)	0mo	$175,000	$182	64
6203 W Lakeshore Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,208 (+12%)	8mo	$300,000	$248	60
117 Morris Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,155 (+7%)	15mo	$242,000	$210	59
1329 Main Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	4mo	$255,900	$267	58
418 Leander Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (+11%)	9mo	$238,000	$199	56
774 W Rosewood Rd	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-7%)	19mo	$157,500	$156	55
6169 W Lakeshore Dr	0.27mi	1/1.0 (-1)	925 (-14%)	18mo	$171,000	$185	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,594
• Equity at exit: $36,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $35,380
• Equity at exit: $21,443

Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,352/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $248,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,000
• Closing costs: $7,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6281 Lakeshore Dr E East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,750	$1.90	43d	1	0.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $248,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $248,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $248,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $248,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $248,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $260,000 Active
18. 2025-10-16
    soldstatus $112,000
19. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,352 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,135 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: +$783/yr (+$65/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,892
• − Property taxes: −$2,352
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$7,215
• Taxable income: $2,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$549
• After-tax cash flow: $5,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+271.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $260,000 PMAR
• 2025-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,352 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.