13015 N Bellbird Dr · Oro Valley, AZ 85755

$359,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 2004 6,926 sqft lot $183/sqft · 21% below area Est $454k · 21% under $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Monterey Home! Inviting, comfortable open floorplan with 10-ft ceilings, recessed lighting and theater sound. Hard to find three car garage... your storage problems are in the past! Backing to the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and with no backyard neighbors, the fully fenced yard and patio offers spectacular views of the Tortolita Mountains, nature and breathtaking sunsets. Location is a close to Hohokam Park, trails and tennis courts, and just a few minutes to shopping, grocers, restaurants, and all that Oro Valley has to offer. This home combines luxury and convenience in a prime location.

Key facts

• Stylish backsplash
• Tandem garage
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STYLISH BACKSPLASH
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• TANDEM GARAGE
• HOME GYM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,655 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $454,329
• List price: $359,900
• Delta: -20.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13047 N Desert Olive Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,011 (+2%)	0mo	$378,000	$188	84
12880 N Salt Cedar Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,928 (-2%)	2mo	$480,000	$249	82
12930 N Topanga Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,781 (-9%)	7mo	$395,000	$222	70
13225 N Booming Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+4%)	9mo	$499,000	$245	61
13274 N Regulation Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+4%)	9mo	$572,500	$281	58
12964 N Desert Olive Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,669 (-15%)	8mo	$375,000	$225	55
13384 N Atalaya Way	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,789 (-9%)	1mo	$545,000	$305	52
1116 W Versilia Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+7%)	1mo	$530,000	$252	49
13573 N Garlenda Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+7%)	5mo	$589,000	$280	46
1117 W Montelupo Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+7%)	10mo	$432,000	$206	46
399 W Klinger Canyon Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+7%)	5mo	$480,000	$229	41
355 W Sacaton Canyon Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,216 (+13%)	2mo	$480,000	$217	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-78,555
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-94,555
• Equity at exit: $31,118

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85755

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,542/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,998

Max offer price $303,867

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1022 W Blue Crest Dr Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2165	$2,195	$1.01	11d	1	0.09mi
1194 W Rodriguez Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,895	$1.00	23d	1	0.27mi
727 W Buffalo Grass Dr Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.39mi
13117 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	2169	$3,200	$1.48	17d	1	0.40mi
13323 N Barlassina Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2321	$2,295	$0.99	43d	1	0.57mi
13555 N Barlassina Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2100	$1,995	$0.95	3d	1	0.78mi
1254 W Versilia Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	2145	$2,295	$1.07	23d	1	0.80mi
655 W Vistoso Highlands Dr #145 Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,800	$2.26	23d	1	0.81mi
755 W Vistoso Highlands Dr Oro Valley, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1587	$3,500	$2.20	3d	3	0.96mi
12690 N Bandanna Way Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1988	$2,195	$1.10	17d	1	0.97mi
13816 N Topflite Dr Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2549	$4,500	$1.77	11d	1	1.03mi
12884 N Pioneer Way Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	2448	$4,500	$1.84	3d	1	1.05mi
13036 N Spinystar Dr Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1893	$2,975	$1.57	43d	1	1.14mi
114 W Freddie Canyon Way Oro Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	23d	1	1.36mi
11921 N Cantata Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1862	$1,995	$1.07	23d	1	1.38mi
12229 N Brightridge Dr Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,095	$1.42	23d	1	1.42mi
98 E Futurity Pl Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,850	$1.49	43d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $359,900 Pending 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,900 Active Contingent 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $359,900 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Beautiful Monterey Home! Inviting, comfortable open floorplan with 10-ft ceilings, recessed lighting and theater sound. Hard to find three car garage... your storage problems are in the past! Backing to the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and with no backyard neighbors, the fully fenced yard and patio offers spectacular views of the Tortolita Mountains, nature and breathtaking sunsets. Location is a close to Hohokam Park, trails and tennis courts, and just a few minutes to shopping, grocers, restaurants, and all that Oro Valley has to offer. This home combines luxury and convenience in a prime location.

16. 2026-04-24
    price $369,900 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Beautiful Monterey Home! Inviting, comfortable open floorplan with 10-ft ceilings, recessed lighting and theater sound. Hard to find three car garage... your storage problems are in the past! Backing to the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and with no backyard neighbors, the fully fenced yard and patio offers spectacular views of the Tortolita Mountains, nature and breathtaking sunsets. Location is a close to Hohokam Park, trails and tennis courts, and just a few minutes to shopping, grocers, restaurants, and all that Oro Valley has to offer. This home combines luxury and convenience in a prime location.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $379,900 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Beautiful Monterey Home! Inviting, comfortable open floorplan with 10-ft ceilings, recessed lighting and theater sound. Hard to find three car garage... your storage problems are in the past! Backing to the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and with no backyard neighbors, the fully fenced yard and patio offers spectacular views of the Tortolita Mountains, nature and breathtaking sunsets. Location is a close to Hohokam Park, trails and tennis courts, and just a few minutes to shopping, grocers, restaurants, and all that Oro Valley has to offer. This home combines luxury and convenience in a prime location.

18. 2026-03-19
    price $385,000 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Beautiful Monterey Home! Inviting, comfortable open floorplan with 10-ft ceilings, recessed lighting and theater sound. Hard to find three car garage... your storage problems are in the past! Backing to the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and with no backyard neighbors, the fully fenced yard and patio offers spectacular views of the Tortolita Mountains, nature and breathtaking sunsets. Location is a close to Hohokam Park, trails and tennis courts, and just a few minutes to shopping, grocers, restaurants, and all that Oro Valley has to offer. This home combines luxury and convenience in a prime location.

19. 2026-03-05
    price $393,000 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Beautiful Monterey Home! Inviting, comfortable open floorplan with 10-ft ceilings, recessed lighting and theater sound. Hard to find three car garage... your storage problems are in the past! Backing to the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and with no backyard neighbors, the fully fenced yard and patio offers spectacular views of the Tortolita Mountains, nature and breathtaking sunsets. Location is a close to Hohokam Park, trails and tennis courts, and just a few minutes to shopping, grocers, restaurants, and all that Oro Valley has to offer. This home combines luxury and convenience in a prime location.

20. 2026-02-04
    price $399,000 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Beautiful Monterey Home! Inviting, comfortable open floorplan with 10-ft ceilings, recessed lighting and theater sound. Hard to find three car garage... your storage problems are in the past! Backing to the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and with no backyard neighbors, the fully fenced yard and patio offers spectacular views of the Tortolita Mountains, nature and breathtaking sunsets. Location is a close to Hohokam Park, trails and tennis courts, and just a few minutes to shopping, grocers, restaurants, and all that Oro Valley has to offer. This home combines luxury and convenience in a prime location.

21. 2026-01-15
    listed $420,000 Active 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Beautiful Monterey Home! Inviting, comfortable open floorplan with 10-ft ceilings, recessed lighting and theater sound. Hard to find three car garage... your storage problems are in the past! Backing to the Vistoso Trails Nature Preserve and with no backyard neighbors, the fully fenced yard and patio offers spectacular views of the Tortolita Mountains, nature and breathtaking sunsets. Location is a close to Hohokam Park, trails and tennis courts, and just a few minutes to shopping, grocers, restaurants, and all that Oro Valley has to offer. This home combines luxury and convenience in a prime location.

22. 2024-07-01
    historical
23. 2024-06-29
    status Active
24. 2024-06-25
    historical Active Contingent
25. 2024-06-18
    price $419,000
26. 2024-06-15
    price $424,000
27. 2024-04-29
    status Active
28. 2024-04-19
    historical Active Contingent
29. 2024-04-03
    price $419,000
30. 2024-03-27
    status Active
31. 2024-03-15
    historical Active Contingent
32. 2024-03-12
    price $424,000
33. 2024-03-05
    price $429,000
34. 2024-02-28
    price $434,000
35. 2024-02-13
    price $439,000
36. 2024-01-31
    price $444,000
37. 2024-01-21
    price $449,000
38. 2024-01-13
    price $454,000
39. 2024-01-04
    price $459,000
40. 2023-12-16
    price $464,000
41. 2023-12-01
    listed $469,000 Active
42. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus $327,500 Closed
43. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus $327,500
44. 2020-12-09
    historical Active Contingent
45. 2020-11-27
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,542 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,542 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥105°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$3,542
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$10,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,455
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,560
• Household income: $113,831
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 211.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.99%
• Current HPI: 254.1505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $359,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $369,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $379,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $385,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $393,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $399,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-15 Listed $420,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-29 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-25 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $419,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-15 Price Changed $424,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-29 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-19 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $419,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-27 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-15 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $424,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $429,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $434,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $439,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $444,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-01-21 Price Changed $449,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $454,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $459,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-12-16 Price Changed $464,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-12-01 Listed $469,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $327,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-23 Sold (MLS) $327,500 MLSSAZ
• 2020-12-09 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2020-11-27 Listed $300,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,542 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.