12039 Noble Chase Path · Dade City, FL 33525

$292,690

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $139/sqft · 17% below area Est $354k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept layout that combines the kitchen with the living and dining areas, and an outdoor patio is easily reached off the main living space. Upstairs, five bedrooms surround a versatile loft, including the peaceful owner's suite, complete with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $293k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($636/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 894 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,627/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,748 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,390
• List price: $292,690
• Delta: -17.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12013 Fallow Down Dr	0.06mi	5/3.0	2,077 (-2%)	0mo	$327,990	$158	92
12022 Noble Chase Path	0.03mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (+7%)	1mo	$329,990	$146	81
12006 Fallow Down Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (-13%)	0mo	$319,990	$175	66
12044 Fallow Down Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (-13%)	1mo	$329,990	$181	65
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,095 (-1%)	17mo	$365,638	$175	61
12020 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,095 (-1%)	18mo	$383,843	$183	60
12152 Stirrup Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,207 (+4%)	18mo	$375,000	$170	51
38442 Palomino Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,207 (+4%)	20mo	$380,000	$172	50
38396 Palomino Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,207 (+4%)	20mo	$387,900	$176	48
38416 Palomino Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,207 (+4%)	22mo	$472,900	$214	47
38361 Barrel Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-14%)	2mo	$307,990	$169	47
38403 Honeysuckle Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,260 (+7%)	21mo	$365,990	$162	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-43,961
• Equity at exit: $43,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-33,556
• Equity at exit: $25,306

Cash invested: $81,953 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 88 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $308,775 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 894
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,627 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,535
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,390/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,560

Max offer price $292,690

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $154	+0% $53	+5% $-48	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-51	+0% $53	+5% $157	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $127	base $53	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,172
• Closing costs: $8,781
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11877 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,100	$1.12	18d	1	0.13mi
11851 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	21d	1	0.16mi
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	48d	1	0.34mi
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	73d	1	0.47mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,388	$1.20	7d	8	0.55mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-29
   days on market $292,690 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-28
   days on market $292,690 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-27
   pricedays on market $292,690 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-26
   days on market $292,490 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-24
   pricedays on market $292,490 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-18
   remarks 354-char remark
7. 2026-06-18
   listed $290,490 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,395
• − Property taxes: −$4,390
• − Insurance: −$1,463
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,522
• − Management: −$2,522
• − Depreciation: −$8,515
• Taxable loss: −$4,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $1,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,560–$31,680 screening

This two-story home features a modern open-concept layout and is in good condition, with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B