73 Water Plant Rd · Owingsville, KY 40360

$124,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1950 0.28 ac lot Est $205k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming home is a must see! This home offers plenty of room with 3 bedrooms and a possible fourth that has its own entrance and deck. Located in a convenient area near schools, doctors and shopping. Barely a minute from I64.

Key facts

• doctors
• shopping
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• POSSIBLE FOURTH BEDROOM
• OWN ENTRANCE AND DECK
• DOCTORS
• SHOPPING
• BARELY A MINUTE FROM I64

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.5% in Owingsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#386 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bath County (rural): math 19% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #139 of 165 in KY (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Owingsville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 530 students, 78% FRL); Bath County Middle School (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 416 students, 78% FRL); Bath County High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 618 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $475 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-389 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Bath County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $125k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $111,732 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,852
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Water Plant Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-3%)	11mo	$225,000	$146	78
40 Bath Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,639 (+3%)	8mo	$212,000	$129	58
128 Bath Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,368 (-14%)	12mo	$165,000	$121	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,314
• Equity at exit: $34,334

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $24,140
• Equity at exit: $39,759

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40360

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $823/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $982

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $142	+0% $107	+5% $72	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $63	+0% $107	+5% $151	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $139	base $107	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2024-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2024-10-29
   price $124,900
3. 2024-08-15
   listed $129,900 Active
4. 2008-10-08
   soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $823 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 30.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$823
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$195
• After-tax cash flow: $1,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bath County
• NCES district ID: 2100330
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $33,531
• Composite: 21.67/100
• National rank: #8278
• State rank: #139 of 165 in KY

Livability — Owingsville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #18670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Owingsville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,071

Population outlook (Bath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,605 people
• By 2030: 14,240 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 15,454 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 16,499 · +21.3%
• By 2075: 18,706 · +37.5%
• By 2100: 19,022 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.3) · D 23.7% · R 75.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.8pp toward R · 2008: -0.5pp · 2024: -51.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.3 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+12.2 2008: R+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 309.3091
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+83.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-16 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $124,900 ImagineMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $129,900 ImagineMLS
• 2008-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $823 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.