4627 Kemper St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1977 6,810 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready. Great location for easy access to Tech or the medical district, and right down the street from Centennial Elementary. Clean and freshly painted. All the expensive items have been updated including A/C unit, electrical panel, new dishwasher, windows, and solid surface flooring throughout. * Priced to sell quickly at $14,000 below tax appraisal. Get your offer in on this one before someone beats you to it.

Key facts

• Oversized backyard
• Bright sunroom
• 6,810 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIME CENTRAL LOCATION
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• WELL-APPOINTED GALLEY KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected / available; Cable available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,091
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed rear porch; Fenced backyard with wood fencing; Front yard; Paved city street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-158/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 618 students, 84% FRL); Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $165k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,634 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-28,679
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-30,510
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,471/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $162,674

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $34	+0% $-13	+5% $-60	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-70	+0% $-13	+5% $43	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $29	base $-13	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4530 Marshall St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1106	$1,600	$1.45	14d	1	0.14mi
4512 Lehigh St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$800	$1.11	44d	1	0.19mi
4605 Harvard St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,400	$1.03	22d	1	0.23mi
4615 Grinnell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1446	$1,474	$1.02	44d	1	0.26mi
4615 Grinnell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1446	$1,700	$1.18	14d	1	0.26mi
4412 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,250	$1.08	44d	1	0.31mi
4638 Erskine St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	949	$1,100	$1.16	22d	1	0.34mi
212 N Troy Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	22d	1	0.79mi
201 N Troy Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	818	$875	$1.07	44d	1	0.84mi
201 N Troy Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	818	$875	$1.07	22d	1	0.84mi
139 N Troy Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	818	$725	$0.89	22d	1	0.86mi
128 N Troy Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$899	$1.12	14d	1	0.90mi
908 N Belmont Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,175	$0.86	44d	1	0.93mi
906 N Belmont Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,225	$0.90	44d	1	0.93mi
602 N Belmont Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,325	$0.97	14d	3	0.99mi
3701 Clovis Rd Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$1,400	$1.68	14d	19	1.06mi
5420 Kemper St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1381	$1,175	$0.85	44d	1	1.07mi
5504 Itasca St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	44d	1	1.12mi
5501 Jarvis St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,450	$1.00	22d	1	1.12mi
1217 N Chicago Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,400	$1.02	44d	1	1.13mi
1415 N Knoxville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1291	$934	$0.72	14d	1	1.14mi
1309 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,745	$1.20	14d	1	1.14mi
1315 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,745	$1.20	22d	1	1.14mi
5506 Itasca St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1445	$1,500	$1.04	44d	1	1.15mi
5511 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	4.0	4.0	1348	$2,000	$1.48	14d	1	1.15mi
5513 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1368	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	1.16mi
522 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.16mi
516 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.18mi
310 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	44d	1	1.18mi
1303 N Clinton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,495	$1.09	44d	1	1.18mi
5515 Kemper St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,425	$1.06	44d	1	1.19mi
503 N Brentwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,200	$0.88	44d	1	1.19mi
5516 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	1.21mi
533 N Clinton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1340	$1,300	$0.97	44d	1	1.22mi
505 N Chicago Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,325	$0.92	44d	1	1.24mi
505 N Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,425	$0.99	44d	1	1.24mi
523 N Clinton Ave Unit Clinton Side A Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1435	$1,295	$0.90	22d	1	1.24mi
1303 N Colton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,275	$0.88	44d	1	1.24mi
5549 Lehigh St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	22d	1	1.26mi
5524 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	22d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on marketlisting id $165,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-05-22
   listed $165,000 Active
7. 2025-07-17
   soldstatus
8. 2025-07-15
   soldstatus Closed 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Move in ready. Great location for easy access to Tech or the medical district, and right down the street from Centennial Elementary. Clean and freshly painted. All the expensive items have been updated including A/C unit, electrical panel, new dishwasher, windows, and solid surface flooring throughout. * Priced to sell quickly at $14,000 below tax appraisal. Get your offer in on this one before someone beats you to it.

9. 2025-06-17
   status Pending 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Move in ready. Great location for easy access to Tech or the medical district, and right down the street from Centennial Elementary. Clean and freshly painted. All the expensive items have been updated including A/C unit, electrical panel, new dishwasher, windows, and solid surface flooring throughout. * Priced to sell quickly at $14,000 below tax appraisal. Get your offer in on this one before someone beats you to it.

10. 2025-06-05
    listed $129,000 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Move in ready. Great location for easy access to Tech or the medical district, and right down the street from Centennial Elementary. Clean and freshly painted. All the expensive items have been updated including A/C unit, electrical panel, new dishwasher, windows, and solid surface flooring throughout. * Priced to sell quickly at $14,000 below tax appraisal. Get your offer in on this one before someone beats you to it.

11. 2025-04-15
    price $129,000
12. 2010-05-20
    soldstatus
13. 2010-05-19
    soldstatus
14. 2007-08-24
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,471 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 22.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,471
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$711
• After-tax cash flow: $553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $165,000 LARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-15 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $129,000 LARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $129,000 LARMLS
• 2010-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,471 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.