230 Orchard Dr W · Mattydale, NY 13212

$229,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1951 8,307 sqft lot Est $310k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1774 Square foot 4 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath Cape Cod in the Liverpool School District. Has full basement ready for your new ideas. Large private back yard. Located off Bailey Road on quiet dead end street.

Key facts

• 8,307 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-718/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#360 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $215,730 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Orchard Dr E	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,683 (-5%)	1mo	$295,000	$175	72
6846 Crystalwood Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,792 (+1%)	12mo	$326,000	$182	65
5068 Constitution Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (+2%)	18mo	$415,000	$230	61
304 Colony Park Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,872 (+6%)	2mo	$362,000	$193	57
4990 Sandalwood Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,840 (+4%)	6mo	$340,000	$185	56
4963 Driftwood Dr	0.66mi	4/1.5	1,792 (+1%)	10mo	$340,000	$190	56
219 Carlton Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,747 (-2%)	18mo	$275,000	$157	55
306 Hyland Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+3%)	8mo	$255,000	$139	53
6867 Thomas Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+11%)	5mo	$295,000	$150	49
120 Colony Park Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,948 (+10%)	16mo	$330,000	$169	45
230 Crestwood Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,521 (-14%)	7mo	$255,000	$168	41
214 Crestwood Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,536 (-13%)	12mo	$220,000	$143	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,737
• Equity at exit: $34,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-39,311
• Equity at exit: $19,843

Cash invested: $64,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13212

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax from tax record: −$657 /mo · $7,880/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,476

Max offer price $218,928

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,375
• Closing costs: $6,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Hyland Dr Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1260	$2,400	$1.90	13d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-04
   soldstatus $220,000
3. 2023-06-12
   status Pending Sale
4. 2023-03-28
   listed $229,500 Active
5. 2020-01-08
   soldstatus $86,000
6. 2020-01-03
   soldstatus $86,000 Closed Sale or Rented 199-char remark

   Show marketing remark (199 chars)

   1774 Square foot 4 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath Cape Cod in the Liverpool School District. Has full basement ready for your new ideas. Large private back yard. Located off Bailey Road on quiet dead end street.

7. 2019-12-09
   status Pending Sale 199-char remark

   Show marketing remark (199 chars)

   1774 Square foot 4 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath Cape Cod in the Liverpool School District. Has full basement ready for your new ideas. Large private back yard. Located off Bailey Road on quiet dead end street.

8. 2019-12-02
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 199-char remark

   Show marketing remark (199 chars)

   1774 Square foot 4 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath Cape Cod in the Liverpool School District. Has full basement ready for your new ideas. Large private back yard. Located off Bailey Road on quiet dead end street.

9. 2019-11-19
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 199-char remark

   Show marketing remark (199 chars)

   1774 Square foot 4 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath Cape Cod in the Liverpool School District. Has full basement ready for your new ideas. Large private back yard. Located off Bailey Road on quiet dead end street.

10. 2019-10-03
    price $89,500 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    1774 Square foot 4 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath Cape Cod in the Liverpool School District. Has full basement ready for your new ideas. Large private back yard. Located off Bailey Road on quiet dead end street.

11. 2019-08-28
    listed $94,500 Active 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    1774 Square foot 4 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath Cape Cod in the Liverpool School District. Has full basement ready for your new ideas. Large private back yard. Located off Bailey Road on quiet dead end street.

12. 2006-07-07
    soldstatus $114,000
13. 2004-03-09
    soldstatus $87,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,880 · $657/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,880 · $657/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,856
• − Property taxes: −$7,880
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,676
• Taxable loss: −$4,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liverpool Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617520
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,134
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3134
• State rank: #381 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattydale

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #6130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,155
• Population (ZIP): 20,185

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.93%
• Current HPI: 317.7322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-03-28 Listed $229,500 CNYIS
• 2020-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-03 Sold (MLS) $86,000 CNYIS
• 2019-12-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2019-12-02 Pending — CNYIS
• 2019-11-19 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2019-10-03 Price Changed $89,500 CNYIS
• 2019-08-28 Listed $94,500 CNYIS
• 2006-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $87,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,880 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.