190 Alhambra Dr · San Marcos, TX 78666

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2016

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large 3/2 home with 3 car driveway and storage shed. Home upgraded with drywall throughout. New water heater and dishwasher within last 2yrs. Roof in good condition, inspected and a few minor repairs made within the last year. Covered front porch and large back patio. Community amenities include fitness center, swimming pool, playground, basketball court and dog park. Home includes stove, refrigerator, and dishwasher. * * Owner financing not available.

Key facts

• New water heater
• Storage shed
• 3 car driveway

Tags

• 3 CAR DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• UPGRADED WITH DRYWALL
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW DISHWASHER
• ROOF IN GOOD CONDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.99%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2800 Rosewood Cir	0.59mi	3/3.0	1,450 (-14%)	17mo	$225,000	$155	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $42,425
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $104,118
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
289 Silver Peak Dr San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,249	$1.15	19d	1	0.25mi
1317 Southpoint Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	17d	1	0.52mi
1650 Harris Hill Rd San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,196	$2.12	1d	25	0.55mi
702 Celebration Way San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$2,238	$2.11	1d	8	0.62mi
109 Bethpage Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,000	$1.08	14d	1	0.69mi
245 Bethpage Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,950	$1.06	43d	1	0.71mi
128 Pronghorn Cir San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1559	$1,749	$1.12	43d	1	0.78mi
131 Sky Meadows Cir San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,300	$1.14	43d	1	0.84mi
143 Mayacama Loop San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	1987	$2,175	$1.09	43d	1	0.87mi
404 Golden Grove Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1966	$1,995	$1.01	43d	1	0.90mi
156 Sky Meadows Cir San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	1946	$2,150	$1.10	43d	1	0.91mi
365 Sonterra Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,345	$1.16	1d	1	0.96mi
341 Escondido Cir San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,000	$0.99	1d	1	1.00mi
344 Escondido Cir San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,150	$1.06	1d	1	1.03mi
428 Ivory St San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$2,199	$2.35	10d	2	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $10,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,448
• After-tax cash flow: $8,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $85,000 FSBO.com