295 Cr 3540 · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$147,491

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot $85/sqft · 49% below area Est $291k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 260 days

Tags

• LIVING ROOM BOASTS FIREPLACE
• STURDY METAL BUILDING
• METAL CARPORT WITH STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,019
• List price: $147,491
• Delta: -49.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $32,368
• Equity at exit: $67,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $95,098
• Equity at exit: $104,069

Cash invested: $41,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$773
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,026/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $147,491

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,873
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $147,491 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,491 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,491 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,491 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,491 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,491 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,491 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,491 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,491 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $147,491 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 246 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 245 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 244 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 243 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 242 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 241 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    price $150,000 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

20. 2026-05-06
    price $154,000 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

21. 2026-03-31
    price $159,000 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

22. 2026-03-02
    price $159,900 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

23. 2026-02-09
    price $164,900 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

24. 2026-01-10
    status Active 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

25. 2025-12-22
    status Pending 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

26. 2025-11-03
    price $169,900 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

27. 2025-09-12
    listed $174,900 Active 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Secluded setting a few miles from Hawkins and Ozarka. Quiet country lifestyle with room for pets, gardening and entertaining. Since renovations are incomplete, there's opportunity to make updates and customize according to preferences. 2 (or 3) bedrooms, 2 bathrooms on 1 acre. Living room boasts a fireplace and French doors leading to the open deck. Kitchen is a blank canvas with refrigerator and electric range/oven. Primary bedroom includes a sitting room or could be converted to a 3rd bedroom. Create the space you imagine living in within these walls. A sturdy metal building that can be used as a workshop/storage area/gathering shed. A metal carport with storage at the back holds 2 smaller vehicles. HVAC and hot water heater installed in 2023. Owner will consider owner financing. 30 minutes from Lindale, Mineola and Quitman. Come by TODAY!

28. 2024-01-05
    historical
29. 2023-12-14
    price $147,000
30. 2023-12-06
    price $148,000
31. 2023-11-15
    listed $150,000 Active
32. 2020-07-13
    soldstatus
33. 2020-07-10
    soldstatus
34. 2020-07-10
    listed $108,000
35. 2010-10-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,026 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,026 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$3,026
• − Insurance: −$737
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable income: $315
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$76
• After-tax cash flow: $2,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+38.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $150,000 GTAR
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $154,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $159,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $159,900 GTAR
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $164,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-10 Relisted — GTAR
• 2025-12-22 Pending — GTAR
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $169,900 GTAR
• 2025-09-12 Listed $174,900 GTAR
• 2024-01-05 Delisted — GTAR
• 2023-12-14 Price Changed $147,000 GTAR
• 2023-12-06 Price Changed $148,000 GTAR
• 2023-11-15 Listed $150,000 GTAR
• 2020-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-10 Listed $108,000 GTAR
• 2020-07-10 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2010-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,026 · +22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.