The Sparrow II Plan · Montgomery, TX 77316

$282,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,397 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

Key facts

• Large loft area
• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STYLISH EN SUITE BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE LOFT AREA
• COVERED REAR PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $282,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $453,570.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2717 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,923 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.16%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $453,570
• List price: $282,990
• Delta: -37.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18768 Dalton Willis Dr Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (-15%)	11mo	$598,000	$294	40
8142 Hills Pkwy	0.92mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,122 (-12%)	1mo	$1,190,000	$561	40
8230 Hills Pkwy	1.23mi	4/2.0	2,203 (-8%)	18mo	$498,800	$226	35
18451 Hills Lake Ct	1.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,746 (+15%)	3mo	$765,900	$279	33
8206 Hills Pkwy	1.17mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,735 (+14%)	11mo	$630,000	$230	25
8142 Hills Pkwy	0.92mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,122 (-12%)	28mo	$690,000	$325	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-161,367
• Equity at exit: $67,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -88.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.12×
• Total profit: $-269,117
• Equity at exit: $39,216

Cash invested: $127,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 180.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $387,990 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2717
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,379
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$567 /mo · $6,804/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-1,287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,968

Max offer price $267,407

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-973	-5% $-1,130	+0% $-1,287	+5% $-1,443	+10% $-1,600
Rent	-10% $-1,471	-5% $-1,379	+0% $-1,287	+5% $-1,194	+10% $-1,102
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,058	-0.5pp $-1,171	base $-1,287	+0.5pp $-1,404	+1.0pp $-1,524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,393
• Closing costs: $13,607
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $282,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family plan listing (The Sparrow II)
• Exterior features: Located on Keenan Cut Off Rd, Montgomery, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area of 2397Plan: The Sparrow II

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $282,990 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $282,990 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $282,990 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $282,990 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $282,990 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $282,990 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $282,990 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $282,990 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $282,990 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $282,990 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $282,990 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $282,990 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $282,990 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $282,990 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $282,990 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $282,990 Active 84 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 83 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 82 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $282,990 Active 81 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $282,990 Active 80 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $282,990 Active 79 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $282,990 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,990 Active 76 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,990 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $282,990 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $282,990 Active 72 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $282,990 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $282,990 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $282,990 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $282,990 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $282,990 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $282,990 Active 66 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $282,990 Active 64 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $282,990 Active 62 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $282,990 Active 61 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $282,990 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $282,990 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $282,990 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 53 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 52 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $282,990 Active 49 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $282,990 Active 48 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $282,990 Active 47 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $282,990 Active 44 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 43 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,990 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,407
• − Property taxes: −$6,804
• − Insurance: −$2,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − Depreciation: −$13,195
• Taxable loss: −$24,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,782
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It offers great versatility with an open-concept floor plan and ample space for a growing family. Additional updates to the landscaping and interior paint can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and outdoor patio — Enhances curb appeal and provides a functional outdoor space. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home feel brighter and more inviting. ↑
• Both Reorganizing furniture in living areas — Can create a more open and functional living space, improving both resale and rental appeal. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lone Star El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Lincoln El C TX #621/4,322 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $282,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family plan listing (The Sparrow II)
• Exterior features: Located on Keenan Cut Off Rd, Montgomery, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area of 2397Plan: The Sparrow II