4101 Lot 246 S Sheridan Rd · Venice, MI 48449

$29,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition $35/sqft · 82% below area $600/mo HOA · 66% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in the desirable Swartz Creek Meadows community. This move-in ready home features a spacious open-concept layout with a bright living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting atmosphere that feels both functional and cozy, just as the owner describes it. All appliances stay with the home. Nestled in a quiet, peaceful park setting, residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a new laundromat inside clubhouse, children's playground, in-ground swimming pool, clubhouse rentals, fitness center, scenic dog-walking trails, baseball field, basketball court, and tennis court, making this an ideal opportunity for comfortable, low-maintenance living in a welcoming community. Financing options are available. This is in a mobile home park and buyer has to be approved by the park to purchase the home.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Tennis court
• Basketball court

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• IN-GROUND SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• SCENIC DOG-WALKING TRAILS
• BASKETBALL COURT
• TENNIS COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-978/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $18k (40.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($914 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Durand Area Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Robert Kerr School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #923 of 1,397 statewide, top 69%, 348 students, 63% FRL); Durand Middle School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #372 of 493 statewide, top 77%, 276 students, 55% FRL); Durand Area High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 425 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Shiawassee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($204 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shiawassee County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 66% of rent.

Recommended offer $17,713 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.83%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,866
• List price: $29,500
• Delta: -82.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $11,261
• Equity at exit: $26,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $38,002
• Equity at exit: $57,312

Cash invested: $8,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48449

• Home prices YoY: 26.4%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$155
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $442/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$600
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,018

Max offer price $17,713

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-71	+0% $-81	+5% $-92	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-118	+0% $-81	+5% $-45	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-74	base $-81	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,375
• Closing costs: $885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $600 · $7,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,500 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,500 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,500 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,500 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,500 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,500 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,500 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,500 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,500 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,500 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,500 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,500 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,500 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,500 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,500 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,500 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,500 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    price $29,500 918-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in the desirable Swartz Creek Meadows community. This move-in ready home features a spacious open-concept layout with a bright living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting atmosphere that feels both functional and cozy, just as the owner describes it. All appliances stay with the home. Nestled in a quiet, peaceful park setting, residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a new laundromat inside clubhouse, children’s playground, in-ground swimming pool, clubhouse rentals, fitness center, scenic dog-walking trails, baseball field, basketball court, and tennis court, making this an ideal opportunity for comfortable, low-maintenance living in a welcoming community. Financing options are available. This is in a mobile home park and buyer has to be approved by the park to purchase the home.

19. 2026-04-13
    price $29,500 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in the desirable Swartz Creek Meadows community. This move-in ready home features a spacious open-concept layout with a bright living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting atmosphere that feels both functional and cozy, just as the owner describes it. All appliances stay with the home. Nestled in a quiet, peaceful park setting, residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a new laundromat inside clubhouse, children’s playground, in-ground swimming pool, clubhouse rentals, fitness center, scenic dog-walking trails, baseball field, basketball court, and tennis court, making this an ideal opportunity for comfortable, low-maintenance living in a welcoming community. Financing options are available. This is in a mobile home park and buyer has to be approved by the park to purchase the home.

20. 2026-02-18
    listed $32,500 Active 918-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in the desirable Swartz Creek Meadows community. This move-in ready home features a spacious open-concept layout with a bright living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting atmosphere that feels both functional and cozy, just as the owner describes it. All appliances stay with the home. Nestled in a quiet, peaceful park setting, residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a new laundromat inside clubhouse, children’s playground, in-ground swimming pool, clubhouse rentals, fitness center, scenic dog-walking trails, baseball field, basketball court, and tennis court, making this an ideal opportunity for comfortable, low-maintenance living in a welcoming community. Financing options are available. This is in a mobile home park and buyer has to be approved by the park to purchase the home.

21. 2026-02-18
    listed $32,500 Active 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in the desirable Swartz Creek Meadows community. This move-in ready home features a spacious open-concept layout with a bright living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting atmosphere that feels both functional and cozy, just as the owner describes it. All appliances stay with the home. Nestled in a quiet, peaceful park setting, residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a new laundromat inside clubhouse, children’s playground, in-ground swimming pool, clubhouse rentals, fitness center, scenic dog-walking trails, baseball field, basketball court, and tennis court, making this an ideal opportunity for comfortable, low-maintenance living in a welcoming community. Financing options are available. This is in a mobile home park and buyer has to be approved by the park to purchase the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,652
• − Property taxes: −$442
• − Insurance: −$148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$878
• − Management: −$878
• − HOA: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$858
• Taxable loss: −$1,083
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$260
• After-tax cash flow: $-718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in a desirable community has average condition and could benefit from some cosmetic updates, such as painting and replacing the flooring and HVAC system, to increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — The paint on the walls and cabinets appears slightly worn.
• Minor Siding — The siding has some discoloration and wear, but no major damage.
• Minor Flooring — The flooring in the kitchen and living areas appears to be laminate or vinyl, which may need replacement.
• Minor HVAC — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint can make the interior look more modern and appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home.
• Resale Replace the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, making it more attractive to buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · The paint on the walls and cabinets appears slightly worn.	Minor	$500–3,000
Siding · The siding has some discoloration and wear, but no major damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · The flooring in the kitchen and living areas appears to be laminate or vinyl, which may need replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC · The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint can make the interior look more modern and appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall appearance and functionality of the home. ↑
• Resale Replace the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, making it more attractive to buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durand Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2612330
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,999
• Composite: 23.67/100
• National rank: #7838
• State rank: #395 of 540 in MI

Livability — Venice

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,760

Population outlook (Shiawassee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,238 people
• By 2030: 61,434 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 55,054 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 48,426 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 35,995 · -44.0%
• By 2100: 26,678 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shiawassee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.7% · R 60.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 76.59%
• Current HPI: 367.19
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $29,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $29,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-18 Listed $32,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-18 Listed $32,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS