16029 Hiawatha Trl · Hillman, MI 49709

$19,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

0.92 ac lot $30/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked near state land, this 2-bedroom mobile home is the perfect up-north getaway. A roof-built-over design adds extra protection. Enjoy easy access to nearby trails for riding, outdoor adventures, and exploring Northern Michigan's natural beauty. Whether you're looking for a recreational base camp or a peaceful place to unwind, this property offers a great location close to nature and endless outdoor opportunities. All offers subject to court approval.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Listed 10 days

Tags

• ROOF BUILT OVER DESIGN
• EASY ACCESS TO NEARBY TRAILS
• GREAT LOCATION CLOSE TO NATURE
• ENDLESS OUTDOOR OPPORTUNITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $763 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#575 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillman Community Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #361 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillman Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 187 students, 61% FRL); Hillman Community Jrsr High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 228 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montmorency County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $14k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $19,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 52.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 164.29%
• DSCR: 8.31
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,874
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -74.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17870 Fourth St	0.26mi	2/1.0	750 (+12%)	24mo	$77,000	$103	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.67×
• Total profit: $59,435
• Equity at exit: $17,927

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.56×
• Total profit: $136,841
• Equity at exit: $38,661

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49709

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $183/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $162

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $774	-5% $768	+0% $763	+5% $757	+10% $752
Rent	-10% $674	-5% $718	+0% $763	+5% $807	+10% $852
Rate	-1.0pp $773	-0.5pp $768	base $763	+0.5pp $758	+1.0pp $752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $19,900 Active 458-char remark
2. 2017-09-25
   soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $183 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $245 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$62/yr (+$5/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$183
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $9,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,253
• After-tax cash flow: $6,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillman Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618360
• Math proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,668
• Composite: 25.78/100
• National rank: #7368
• State rank: #361 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hillman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #575
• US rank: #18368

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,524

Population outlook (Montmorency County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,233 people
• By 2030: 7,575 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 6,202 · -24.7%
• By 2050: 5,081 · -38.3%
• By 2075: 3,119 · -62.1%
• By 2100: 1,923 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montmorency

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.6% · R 72.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+43.4 2016: R+44.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.88%
• Current HPI: 361.3052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2017-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $183 · -64.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.