Niles Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$400,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,370 sqft · SingleFamily · 171 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home features modern essentials, including a secluded flex space ideal as an office or studio. Upon entry, three comfortable bedroom suites boast a convenient location near a full bathroom. At the back of the home, a modern kitchen, spacious family room and inviting dining area share an open plan with easy access to a covered patio. Nestled into a private rear corner, a luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet completes the home.

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Lake
• Parks

Tags

• GOLF COURSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• LAKE
• PARKS
• SPORTS COURTS
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY

🏗️ New construction. The $400,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $492,871.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $401k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-951 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($353k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,138 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $492,871
• List price: $400,990
• Delta: -18.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32107 Morning Luster Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,402 (+1%)	1mo	$369,990	$154	74
5711 Sunland Trl	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,402 (+1%)	1mo	$391,990	$163	70
32215 Sunbeam Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,417 (+2%)	1mo	$364,990	$151	68
31423 Splitting Willow Way	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,242 (-5%)	1mo	$349,999	$156	68
32503 Midsummer Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,342 (-1%)	1mo	$324,990	$139	62
32511 Midsummer Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,342 (-1%)	1mo	$350,990	$150	62
32455 Sunbeam Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,342 (-1%)	2mo	$329,990	$141	62
31130 Crescent Hill Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5	2,695 (+14%)	0mo	$499,000	$185	57
31131 Riley Heights Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,600 (+10%)	1mo	$464,806	$179	53
32127 Morning Luster Ct	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,677 (+13%)	1mo	$389,990	$146	48
32223 Sunbeam Dr	0.61mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,697 (+14%)	0mo	$379,990	$141	39
31103 Marlow Manor Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-12%)	2mo	$428,990	$205	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-149,724
• Equity at exit: $73,489

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-244,185
• Equity at exit: $42,614

Cash invested: $138,004 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,585
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$616 /mo · $7,393/yr
• Insurance: −$205
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-951

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,396

Max offer price $355,204

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-611	-5% $-781	+0% $-951	+5% $-1,122	+10% $-1,292
Rent	-10% $-1,204	-5% $-1,077	+0% $-951	+5% $-825	+10% $-699
Rate	-1.0pp $-703	-0.5pp $-826	base $-951	+0.5pp $-1,079	+1.0pp $-1,209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,218
• Closing costs: $14,786
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.65mi
7302 New Pecan Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	4.0	2844	$3,299	$1.16	45d	1	0.78mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.5	2992	$3,732	$1.25	0d	1	0.84mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	14d	1	0.86mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	45d	1	1.26mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	14d	1	1.28mi
33002 Franklin Brooks Dr Pattison, TX	4.0	3.5	3255	$4,385	$1.35	0d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $400,990 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,990 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $400,990 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,990 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,990 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,990 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $410,990 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,990 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,990 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $410,990 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $410,990 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,990 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,990 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,990 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,990 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-01-01
    listed $410,990 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    This new single-story home features modern essentials, including a secluded flex space ideal as an office or studio. Upon entry, three comfortable bedroom suites boast a convenient location near a full bathroom. At the back of the home, a modern kitchen, spacious family room and inviting dining area share an open plan with easy access to a covered patio. Nestled into a private rear corner, a luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet completes the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,608
• − Property taxes: −$7,393
• − Insurance: −$3,262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,064
• − Management: −$3,064
• − Depreciation: −$14,338
• Taxable loss: −$20,432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,904
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listed $410,990 Zillow