838 Harolds Rd · Houston, TX 77336

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1994

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful and well maintained manufactured home available! Spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, featuring a large living area, great natural lighting, and plenty of space throughout. Located in the Huffman area with convenient access to nearby shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, including close access to the lake, while still being outside of a flood zone. Perfect opportunity for someone looking for an affordable home, investment property, or a home to relocate onto their own land. & acirc; & euro; & cent; [1997] Palm Harbor Manufactured Home & acirc; & euro; & cent; [1856/SqFt] & acirc; & euro; & cent; [3 Bed / 2 Bath] & acirc; &

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Outdoor recreation
• Large living area

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• NATURAL LIGHTING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• CLOSE ACCESS TO THE LAKE
• OUTSIDE OF A FLOOD ZONE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1994
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,848
• Exterior features: Located in the Lake Houston subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.9% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.94%
• DSCR: 6.03
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $71,484
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.80×
• Total profit: $164,848
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $1,249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $477

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,277	-5% $1,263	+0% $1,249	+5% $1,234	+10% $1,220
Rent	-10% $1,086	-5% $1,167	+0% $1,249	+5% $1,330	+10% $1,411
Rate	-1.0pp $1,274	-0.5pp $1,261	base $1,249	+0.5pp $1,236	+1.0pp $1,222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24118 Grey Fox Dr Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1543	$1,425	$0.92	44d	1	0.26mi
24730 Russet Bluff Trl Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1604	$2,150	$1.34	2d	1	0.26mi
24719 Colony Meadow Trl Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,200	$1.36	44d	1	0.29mi
408 Emerald Thicket Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,200	$1.25	44d	1	0.67mi
24523 Whitesail Dr Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,800	$1.19	44d	1	0.81mi
24527 Lightwoods Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$2,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$577/yr (+$48/mo · 172.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$1,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $15,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,626
• After-tax cash flow: $11,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $49,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $336 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.