45 Lynell Dr · Riverside, TX 77320

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2021 0.33 ac lot $98/sqft · 161% above area $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2021 Oak Creek Manufactured home in the Huntsville ISD on two lots. This home features three bedrooms, two baths, 1178 sqft, 2 lots (. 33 acres), smartpanel siding, shingle roof, kitchen island, separate soaker tub & shower, and thermopane windows, dual, vanity, and new decks. Remodel is wrapping up so new pics coming soon! The owner is a mortgage company and they will easily finance someone new.

Key facts

• Separate soaker tub
• Smartpanel siding
• Thermopane windows

Tags

• SMARTPANEL SIDING
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SEPARATE SOAKER TUB
• THERMOPANE WINDOWS
• NEW DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.4% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 518 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.17%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,022
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: 161.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,135
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $38,970
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 518
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,519/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,008

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $472	-5% $439	+0% $407	+5% $374	+10% $342
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $346	+0% $407	+5% $467	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $464	-0.5pp $436	base $407	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $114,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $114,900 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    2021 Oak Creek Manufactured home in the Huntsville ISD on two lots. This home features three bedrooms, two baths, 1178 sqft, 2 lots (. 33 acres), smartpanel siding, shingle roof, kitchen island, separate soaker tub & shower, and thermopane windows, dual, vanity, and new decks. Remodel is wrapping up so new pics coming soon! The owner is a mortgage company and they will easily finance someone new.

18. 2026-02-02
    listed $145,000 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    2021 Oak Creek Manufactured home in the Huntsville ISD on two lots. This home features three bedrooms, two baths, 1178 sqft, 2 lots (. 33 acres), smartpanel siding, shingle roof, kitchen island, separate soaker tub & shower, and thermopane windows, dual, vanity, and new decks. Remodel is wrapping up so new pics coming soon! The owner is a mortgage company and they will easily finance someone new.

19. 2021-09-09
    soldstatus
20. 2012-09-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$584/yr (+$49/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,519
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $3,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$779
• After-tax cash flow: $4,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1150
• US rank: #20204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• City population: 634
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1030.0

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $114,900 LAAR
• 2026-02-02 Listed $145,000 LAAR
• 2021-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+41.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,519 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.