25704 John Wayne Rd · Patton Village, TX 77372

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · Land · 100 Days on market

Built 2026 6,316 sqft lot $162/sqft · 14% above area Est $254k · 14% over $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do Not Miss The Hemingway, a stunning, modern 1-story, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen. You’ll find 4 bedrooms including a light-filled primary suite with a luxurious ensuite and walk-in closet. Every space is designed with purpose, personality, and a sense of modern-contemporary flair. Located in Hill & Dale Ranch in Splendora, TX, this is your chance to own an ICONIQ home that stands out from the rest. Don’t wait — this one won’t last long!

Key facts

• 6,316 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-637/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Peach Creek El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 557 students, 65% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 548 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,317 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,735
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: 14.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-50,498
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,898
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $677/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,180

Max offer price $280,522

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $29	+0% $-53	+5% $-135	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-137	+0% $-53	+5% $30	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $21	base $-53	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	2.5	1968	$1,983	$1.01	12d	1	0.25mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	6d	1	0.25mi
25625 Chestnut Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,675	$1.07	26d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $289,900 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Hemingway, a stunning, modern 1-story, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen. You’ll find 4 bedrooms including a light-filled primary suite with a luxurious ensuite and walk-in closet. Every space is designed with purpose, personality, and a sense of modern-contemporary flair. Located in Hill & Dale Ranch in Splendora, TX, this is your chance to own an ICONIQ home that stands out from the rest. Don’t wait — this one won’t last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,628/yr (+$386/mo · 683.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$677
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$5,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,392
• After-tax cash flow: $755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $289,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+67.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $677 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.