7307 Nickaburr Creek Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$344,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,863 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1997 0.46 ac lot $185/sqft · 6% below area Est $368k · 6% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Custom-built and made for real life—this 3 bed / 2 bath / 2-car home shines with a bright great room, cozy fireplace, and soaring cathedral ceilings. The split floor plan gives everyone space and privacy, making it a great fit. Your primary suite features double closets, a garden tub, and a separate shower. Step outside to enjoy a large yard plus a 12x24 workshop with electricity—perfect for projects, hobbies, or extra storage. Bring the toys, too: there’s a triple concrete driveway with RV parking and a 29x11 covered back patio ready for BBQs and weekend hangouts. Located in Magnolia ISD!

Key facts

• Double closets
• Cathedral ceilings
• Split floor plan

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• GARDEN TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-656 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bear Branch El (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 579 students, 28% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,327 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.15%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,201
• List price: $344,900
• Delta: -6.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7402 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-2%)	6mo	$339,999	$186	87
7407 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,874 (+1%)	4mo	$399,000	$213	84
7415 Charred Pine Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-3%)	7mo	$335,000	$185	82
7219 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,780 (-4%)	8mo	$349,999	$197	82
7115 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,719 (-8%)	6mo	$300,000	$175	75
33127 Cottonwood Bnd	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,834 (-2%)	1mo	$225,000	$123	69
8739 Ute Creek Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,846 (-1%)	0mo	$310,000	$168	68
7406 Revelwood Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-11%)	0mo	$339,900	$206	66
8641 Cimarron Mesa Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,962 (+5%)	7mo	$290,000	$148	54
8918 James Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,974 (+6%)	7mo	$534,499	$271	53
3812 Cimarron Gap Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-9%)	9mo	$254,990	$151	45
7226 Basque Country Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,124 (+14%)	8mo	$295,000	$139	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $140,164
• Equity at exit: $310,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $434,933
• Equity at exit: $670,065

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$479 /mo · $5,742/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,104

Max offer price $229,006

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-461	-5% $-558	+0% $-656	+5% $-754	+10% $-851
Rent	-10% $-836	-5% $-746	+0% $-656	+5% $-566	+10% $-476
Rate	-1.0pp $-482	-0.5pp $-568	base $-656	+0.5pp $-745	+1.0pp $-836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	0d	22	0.44mi
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	45d	1	0.76mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,383	$1.73	13d	1	0.80mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,332	$1.69	0d	1	0.91mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 10366 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,372	$1.72	12d	1	0.91mi
33123 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	7d	1	0.99mi
33139 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	7d	1	0.99mi
33130 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	7d	1	1.00mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,345	$1.24	19d	1	1.00mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,345	$1.24	23d	1	1.00mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1896	$2,195	$1.16	0d	6	1.00mi
33150 Willow Heights Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	7d	1	1.03mi
33146 Willow Heights Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	7d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $344,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $344,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $344,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $344,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $344,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $344,900 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-14
    price $344,900 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Custom-built and made for real life—this 3 bed / 2 bath / 2-car home shines with a bright great room, cozy fireplace, and soaring cathedral ceilings. The split floor plan gives everyone space and privacy, making it a great fit. Your primary suite features double closets, a garden tub, and a separate shower. Step outside to enjoy a large yard plus a 12x24 workshop with electricity—perfect for projects, hobbies, or extra storage. Bring the toys, too: there’s a triple concrete driveway with RV parking and a 29x11 covered back patio ready for BBQs and weekend hangouts. Located in Magnolia ISD!

14. 2026-05-14
    price $345,000 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Custom-built and made for real life—this 3 bed / 2 bath / 2-car home shines with a bright great room, cozy fireplace, and soaring cathedral ceilings. The split floor plan gives everyone space and privacy, making it a great fit. Your primary suite features double closets, a garden tub, and a separate shower. Step outside to enjoy a large yard plus a 12x24 workshop with electricity—perfect for projects, hobbies, or extra storage. Bring the toys, too: there’s a triple concrete driveway with RV parking and a 29x11 covered back patio ready for BBQs and weekend hangouts. Located in Magnolia ISD!

15. 2026-03-03
    listed $350,000 Active 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Custom-built and made for real life—this 3 bed / 2 bath / 2-car home shines with a bright great room, cozy fireplace, and soaring cathedral ceilings. The split floor plan gives everyone space and privacy, making it a great fit. Your primary suite features double closets, a garden tub, and a separate shower. Step outside to enjoy a large yard plus a 12x24 workshop with electricity—perfect for projects, hobbies, or extra storage. Bring the toys, too: there’s a triple concrete driveway with RV parking and a 29x11 covered back patio ready for BBQs and weekend hangouts. Located in Magnolia ISD!

16. 2003-11-01
    historical
17. 2003-08-14
    listed $142,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,742 · $479/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,312 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: +$569/yr (+$47/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$5,742
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$14,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+142.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $344,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2003-11-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-08-14 Listed $142,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,742 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.