11323 127th Street Ct E #159 · South Hill, WA 98374

$124,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,561 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 Est $145k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this spacious and well-maintained 1,561 sq. ft. manufactured home located in the highly desirable Sans Souci 55+ community. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this home features an inviting open floor plan with vaulted ceilings that create a bright and airy living space. The generous primary suite serves as a private retreat with a large en-suite bath and ample closet space, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Enjoy year-round outdoor living on the expansive covered deck—perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or entertaining friends. A covered parking area provides convenience and protection from the elemen

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• EXPANSIVE COVERED DECK
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area approximately 1561; Structure type: Manufactured house; Levels: One; Directions: GPS is accurate
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park amenities: BBQs, clubhouse, common area, exercise room, pool; Park approved for sale; Park name: San Souci; Pets allowed: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Dartmouth model; Good condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Double wide body type
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric energy source
• Interior features: Dining room; Family room; Kitchen with eating space; Utility room; Bath off primary; Ceiling fan(s); Landscaped; Patio/Porch/Deck; Vaulted ceilings; Accessible approach with ramp; Has heating; Has cooling; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.0% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in WA, #1,620 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, cost of living F.
• Puyallup School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.59%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,173
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11418 127th St E #189	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-1%)	4mo	$150,000	$97	92
11303 127th Street Ct E #164	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-0%)	2mo	$144,950	$93	91
12615 113th St E #249	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-6%)	8mo	$116,950	$80	79
11325 126th St E #229	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	5mo	$139,900	$96	75
11301 126th St E #241	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-9%)	1mo	$60,000	$42	74
11401 125th Street Ct E #218	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-10%)	8mo	$139,950	$100	71
11415 127th St E #186	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,339 (-14%)	3mo	$80,000	$60	66
12602 112th Ave E #33	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-14%)	9mo	$66,500	$50	62
12314 124th St E #17	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-4%)	1mo	$150,000	$100	59
12227 123rd St Ct E #45	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-4%)	9mo	$100,000	$67	53
12223 125th St E #101	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (+11%)	1mo	$164,000	$95	51
12504 123rd St E #54	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	7mo	$103,000	$72	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $54,972
• Equity at exit: $18,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $135,657
• Equity at exit: $10,803

Cash invested: $34,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98374

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,202/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $1,234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $124,950

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,304	-5% $1,269	+0% $1,234	+5% $1,198	+10% $1,163
Rent	-10% $1,023	-5% $1,128	+0% $1,234	+5% $1,339	+10% $1,444
Rate	-1.0pp $1,296	-0.5pp $1,265	base $1,234	+0.5pp $1,201	+1.0pp $1,168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,238
• Closing costs: $3,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12202 107th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	1.5	1248	$3,000	$2.40	44d	1	0.53mi
12202 107th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	1.5	1248	$2,850	$2.28	4d	1	0.53mi
10614 123rd Street Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.5	1584	$2,500	$1.58	44d	1	0.53mi
13011 122nd Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	2176	$3,100	$1.42	44d	1	0.57mi
12724 104th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$2,345	$2.58	5d	8	0.60mi
12117 122nd Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1549	$2,975	$1.92	0d	1	0.60mi
13404 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	25d	1	0.64mi
13011 Meridian E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,350	$2.49	3d	19	0.70mi
12111 104th Ave E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,867	$2.07	5d	1	0.73mi
13523 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	25d	1	0.73mi
502 43rd Ave SE Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,810	$2.55	4d	1	0.76mi
12123 125th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,100	$1.89	44d	1	0.81mi
12437 129th Ave E Puyallup, WA	2.0	1.5	1818	$2,400	$1.32	10d	1	0.92mi
10511 140th Street Ct E #27 Puyallup, WA	3.0	3.0	1311	$2,650	$2.02	25d	1	0.99mi
13507 99th Ave E Puyallup, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	994	$2,237	$2.25	0d	14	1.03mi
10414 140th Street Ct E #55 Puyallup, WA	4.0	2.5	1407	$2,595	$1.84	0d	1	1.04mi
10414 140th St Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	2.5	1407	$2,595	$1.84	2d	1	1.04mi
11013 144th Street Ct E Unit O24-6-B Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,450	$1.75	44d	1	1.10mi
13405 97th Ave E #308 Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,095	$1.93	44d	1	1.11mi
13404 97th Ave E South Hill, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,155	$2.25	44d	3	1.15mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $124,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,202 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,999
• − Property taxes: −$1,202
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,561
• − Management: −$2,561
• − Depreciation: −$3,635
• Taxable income: $13,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,272
• After-tax cash flow: $11,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Puyallup School District
• NCES district ID: 5306960
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,291
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #52 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1620

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 76,707
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,007
• Household income: $112,662
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1171.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -431.48%
• Current HPI: 286.6617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $124,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+26.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,202 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.