261 W Lake Shore Dr · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,249 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1872 0.50 ac lot $76/sqft · 34% below area Est $144k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming corner-lot home in Dunkirk, perfectly situated just blocks from Cedar Beach, the Dunkirk Pier, and Point Gratiot! Located on a main road for easy access, this property offers convenience while still giving you a sense of privacy thanks to its fully fenced yard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or letting pets roam freely. This home has great bones and tons of potential. With a little updating and your personal touch, it could easily become the perfect lake town getaway, year-round residence, or investment opportunity!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1872

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $95k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.89%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,616
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -33.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 Temple St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+0%)	2mo	$158,894	$127	80
222 Brigham Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,287 (+3%)	10mo	$150,100	$117	72
184 W 2nd St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-7%)	10mo	$105,000	$91	66
208 Brigham Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,122 (-10%)	5mo	$93,000	$83	65
30 Point Dr W	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+10%)	2mo	$79,900	$58	64
72 W 5th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,184 (-5%)	10mo	$70,000	$59	52
53 W 5th St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+3%)	11mo	$100,000	$78	52
142 Lake Shore Dr W	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,067 (-15%)	8mo	$112,500	$105	51
407 Dove St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,382 (+11%)	4mo	$110,000	$80	48
210 Robin St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,131 (-9%)	15mo	$47,872	$42	42
305 Canary St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,078 (-14%)	9mo	$115,000	$107	39
416 Robin St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,436 (+15%)	9mo	$137,800	$96	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $39,694
• Equity at exit: $53,380

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $104,504
• Equity at exit: $91,799

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $824

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Welcome to this charming corner-lot home in Dunkirk, perfectly situated just blocks from Cedar Beach, the Dunkirk Pier, and Point Gratiot! Located on a main road for easy access, this property offers convenience while still giving you a sense of privacy thanks to its fully fenced yard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or letting pets roam freely. This home has great bones and tons of potential. With a little updating and your personal touch, it could easily become the perfect lake town getaway, year-round residence, or investment opportunity!

2. 2026-04-01
   listed $94,900 Active 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Welcome to this charming corner-lot home in Dunkirk, perfectly situated just blocks from Cedar Beach, the Dunkirk Pier, and Point Gratiot! Located on a main road for easy access, this property offers convenience while still giving you a sense of privacy thanks to its fully fenced yard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or letting pets roam freely. This home has great bones and tons of potential. With a little updating and your personal touch, it could easily become the perfect lake town getaway, year-round residence, or investment opportunity!

3. 2008-01-30
   soldstatus $31,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $2,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$488
• After-tax cash flow: $2,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+197.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2008-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $31,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,366 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.