11612 Onyx Cir · Fort Myers, FL 33913

$519,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2019 7,814 sqft lot Est $565k · 8% under $564/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover resort-style living at its finest in this stunning one-story, turnkey home located in the highly sought after Arborwood Preserve community of Fort Myers, just off of the Tree Line Corridor. This specious three bedroom plus den Trevi model features an inviting extended lanai area, with a built in kitchen, overlooking a beautiful back yard space, with two majestic Royal Palms, on water. The second bedroom features an en-suite, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. The home has tile throughout the main living areas, with carpet in the bedrooms and den. Neutral color palette and ceiling fans in every room. Newer LG (2022) washer and dryer. Shows like new! Located in a vibran

Key facts

• Tile throughout
• Gated community
• Clubhouse

Tags

• EXTENDED LANAI AREA
• BUILT IN KITCHEN
• EN-SUITE
• TILE THROUGHOUT
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $519k).
• Recommended offer: $511k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 821 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,118/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 276% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($511k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $511,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.34%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $564,896
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11591 Shady Blossom Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,032 (0%)	3mo	$565,000	$278	90
11425 Shady Blossom Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,032 (0%)	1mo	$550,000	$271	80
11849 Grand Isles Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+1%)	14mo	$708,500	$344	72
11148 Shady Lake Run	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,032 (0%)	21mo	$530,000	$261	62
11930 Silver Cobblestone Way	0.15mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,202 (+8%)	15mo	$500,000	$227	62
11884 Bourke Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,107 (+4%)	15mo	$615,000	$292	52
11897 Clifton Ter	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,862 (-8%)	4mo	$550,000	$295	49
11872 Bourke Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,107 (+4%)	22mo	$670,000	$318	47
11238 Shady Blossom Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,202 (+8%)	2mo	$515,000	$234	46
12560 Lake Run Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (-5%)	5mo	$550,000	$285	45
12232 Sussex St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,107 (+4%)	15mo	$575,000	$273	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-58,224
• Equity at exit: $77,385

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-57,200
• Equity at exit: $44,874

Cash invested: $145,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33913

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 821
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax from tax record: −$684 /mo · $8,211/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$564
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,285
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,299

Max offer price $519,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $941	-5% $794	+0% $647	+5% $500	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $405	+0% $647	+5% $888	+10% $1,130
Rate	-1.0pp $908	-0.5pp $779	base $647	+0.5pp $512	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,750
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11442 Tiverton Trce Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$9,500	$4.73	25d	1	0.66mi
11012 Castlereagh St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2517	$12,000	$4.77	25d	1	0.84mi
12096 Ledgewood Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,850	$1.59	25d	1	0.93mi
12062 Via Lighthouse Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$1,995	$1.06	5d	1	0.97mi
12021 Brassie Cir #201 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2343	$2,700	$1.15	5d	1	0.99mi
12797 Vista Pine Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	2146	$2,705	$1.26	5d	1	1.01mi
10529 Casella Way #102 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$4,500	$2.61	25d	1	1.01mi
11801 Pine Timber Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2508	$8,000	$3.19	25d	1	1.01mi
10908 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$8,000	$5.58	16d	1	1.06mi
10908 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$8,000	$5.58	25d	1	1.06mi
10520 Casella Way #101 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	25d	1	1.07mi
11761 Pinewood Lakes Dr Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.0	2528	$3,200	$1.27	5d	1	1.15mi
10455 Casella Way #202 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2319	$7,200	$3.10	25d	1	1.20mi
10474 Spruce Pine Ct Fort Myers, FL	5.0	3.0	2680	$2,995	$1.12	25d	1	1.20mi
12525 Astor Pl Unit 1049698P Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2174	$6,065	$2.79	16d	1	1.21mi
11619 Meadowrun Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$2,495	$1.11	25d	1	1.22mi
11170 Lakeland Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,975	$1.26	16d	1	1.30mi
12482 Kentwood Ave Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2251	$4,900	$2.18	20d	1	1.31mi
10284 Livorno Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$7,000	$3.18	5d	1	1.37mi
12016 Five Waters Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$4,500	$2.73	25d	1	1.39mi
11081 Lakeland Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	2136	$2,600	$1.22	25d	1	1.40mi
11082 Lakeland Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1883	$2,095	$1.11	25d	1	1.40mi
12171 Treeline Ave Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1321	$3,402	$2.58	5d	23	1.46mi
10305 Longleaf Pine Ct Fort Myers, FL	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,000	$1.12	17d	1	1.48mi
10730 Cetrella Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,900	$4.43	25d	1	1.49mi
11028 Lakeland Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	2136	$2,550	$1.19	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $564 · $6,768/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Pending With Contingencies
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $519,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,211 · $684/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,211 · $684/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$8,211
• − Insurance: −$2,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,873
• − Management: −$5,873
• − HOA: −$6,768
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable loss: −$79
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19
• After-tax cash flow: $7,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,538
• Household income: $110,373
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 276.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 221.7115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $519,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,211 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.