4255 Tillie Cir · Chattanooga, TN 37419

$237,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,127 sqft · Townhouse · 74 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $211/sqft · 22% below area Est $304k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

On the first floor of this new three-story townhome is a practical office, ideal for those remote work days. Upstairs is the open-concept main living area, featuring a comfortable living room, a fully equipped kitchen and an intimate dining area with deck access. Residing on the uppermost level are two bedroom suites, each showcasing a private attached bathroom and generously sized closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Deck access
• Garage

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• DECK ACCESS
• PRIVATE ATTACHED BATHROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Chattanooga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#3 in TN, #2,582 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lookout Valley Elementary (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #231 of 952 statewide, top 26%, 268 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,244 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,979
• List price: $237,900
• Delta: -21.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4223 Tillie Cir	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	7mo	$243,670	$216	93
4183 Tillie Cir	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	10mo	$257,700	$229	89
212 Asbury Oak Ln	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	10mo	$257,500	$228	88
4138 Tillie Cir #102	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	22mo	$270,000	$240	78
4191 Tillie Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,190 (+6%)	12mo	$281,550	$237	73
4156 Outpost Way	0.66mi	2/2.5	1,278 (+13%)	14mo	$319,900	$250	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-44,491
• Equity at exit: $35,472

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-46,310
• Equity at exit: $20,569

Cash invested: $66,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $245,200 ($219/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37419

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,568/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $224,335

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $-12	+0% $-94	+5% $-176	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-171	+0% $-94	+5% $-16	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-33	base $-94	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,475
• Closing costs: $7,137
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
244 Asbury Oak Ln Chattanooga, TN	3.0	3.5	1463	$2,299	$1.57	109d	1	0.02mi
4162 Tillie Cir Chattanooga, TN	2.0	2.5	1127	$1,699	$1.51	109d	1	0.03mi
4158 Tillie Cir Chattanooga, TN	3.0	3.5	1463	$2,149	$1.47	109d	1	0.03mi
3830 Kellys Ferry Rd Chattanooga, TN	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,995	$1.51	109d	1	0.75mi
28 Lilac Ave Chattanooga, TN	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	119d	1	1.28mi
200 S Aster Ave Chattanooga, TN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	6d	1	1.41mi
3322 Parker Ln Unit A Chattanooga, TN	1.0	1.0	836	$950	$1.14	119d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $237,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $237,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $237,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $237,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $237,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $237,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $237,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $237,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $237,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $237,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $237,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $237,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $237,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $237,900 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $237,900 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $237,900 Active 49 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $237,900 Active 48 DOM
20. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,900 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-06-03
    price $223,900 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-06-02
    days on market $222,900 Active 45 DOM
23. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,900 Active 44 DOM
24. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,900 Active 43 DOM
25. 2026-05-30
    days on market $222,900 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,326
• − Property taxes: −$3,568
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$6,921
• Taxable loss: −$5,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a practical office on the first floor and an open-concept main living area with two bedrooms and two bathrooms. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lookout Valley Elementary F TN #231/952 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 High Lookout Valley Middle / High School F TN #237/332 Nat'l #15,355/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Chattanooga

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2582

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chattanooga, TN
• County: Marion · 393,784 people
• City population: 131,999
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 6,288
• Household income: $86,029
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.36%
• Current HPI: 258.6585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B