4255 Tillie Cir · Chattanooga, TN 37419

$232,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,127 sqft · Townhouse · 120 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $207/sqft · 23% below area Est $302k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

On the first floor of this new three-story townhome is a practical office, ideal for those remote work days. Upstairs is the open-concept main living area, featuring a comfortable living room, a fully equipped kitchen and an intimate dining area with deck access. Residing on the uppermost level are two bedroom suites, each showcasing a private attached bathroom and generously sized closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Deck access
• Garage

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• DECK ACCESS
• PRIVATE ATTACHED BATHROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $233k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-575/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Chattanooga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#3 in TN, #2,582 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lookout Valley Elementary (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #231 of 952 statewide, top 26%, 268 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 155d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,673 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,432
• List price: $232,900
• Delta: -22.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4223 Tillie Cir	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	8mo	$243,670	$216	92
4183 Tillie Cir	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	12mo	$257,700	$229	88
212 Asbury Oak Ln	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	12mo	$257,500	$228	87
4138 Tillie Cir #102	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	23mo	$270,000	$240	77
4191 Tillie Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,190 (+6%)	14mo	$281,550	$237	72
4104 Outpost Way	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,153 (+2%)	1mo	$337,000	$292	61
4156 Outpost Way	0.66mi	2/2.5	1,278 (+13%)	15mo	$319,900	$250	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,761
• Equity at exit: $34,726

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-39,301
• Equity at exit: $20,137

Cash invested: $65,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 60.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $241,900 ($211/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37419

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,221
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$291 /mo · $3,494/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $225,968

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $33	+0% $-48	+5% $-128	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-126	+0% $-48	+5% $30	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $11	base $-48	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,225
• Closing costs: $6,987
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
244 Asbury Oak Ln Chattanooga, TN	3.0	3.5	1463	$2,299	$1.57	154d	1	0.02mi
4162 Tillie Cir Chattanooga, TN	2.0	2.5	1127	$1,699	$1.51	154d	1	0.03mi
4243 Tillie Cir Chattanooga, TN	3.0	3.5	1463	$2,150	$1.47	0d	1	0.03mi
4158 Tillie Cir Chattanooga, TN	3.0	3.5	1463	$2,149	$1.47	154d	1	0.03mi
3830 Kellys Ferry Rd Chattanooga, TN	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,995	$1.51	154d	1	0.75mi
28 Lilac Ave Chattanooga, TN	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	164d	1	1.28mi
28 Lilac Ave Chattanooga, TN	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	1d	1	1.28mi
200 S Aster Ave Chattanooga, TN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	10d	1	1.41mi
200 S Aster Ave Chattanooga, TN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	11d	1	1.41mi
3322 Parker Ln Unit A Chattanooga, TN	1.0	1.0	836	$950	$1.14	164d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $232,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $232,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $232,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $232,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $232,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $230,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $230,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $230,900 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $230,900 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $230,900 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $230,900 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    pricedays on market $230,900 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $228,900 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    pricedays on market $228,900 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $224,900 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $224,900 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $224,900 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $224,900 Active 102 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $224,900 Active 101 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $224,900 Active 100 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $224,900 Active 99 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $224,900 Active 98 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $224,900 Active 97 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $224,900 Active 96 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $224,900 Active 95 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    pricedays on market $224,900 Active 94 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $236,900 Active 93 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $236,900 Active 92 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $236,900 Active 91 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $236,900 Active 90 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $236,900 Active 89 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $236,900 Active 88 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $236,900 Active 87 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $236,900 Active 86 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $236,900 Active 85 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    pricedays on market $236,900 Active 84 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $252,900 Active 83 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $252,900 Active 82 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $252,900 Active 81 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    price $252,900 Active 80 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $237,900 Active 80 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $237,900 Active 79 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $237,900 Active 78 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $237,900 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $237,900 Active 76 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $237,900 Active 75 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $237,900 Active 74 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $237,900 Active 73 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $237,900 Active 72 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $237,900 Active 71 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,046
• − Property taxes: −$3,494
• − Insurance: −$1,164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$6,775
• Taxable loss: −$4,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,093
• After-tax cash flow: $518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a practical office on the first floor and an open-concept main living area with two bedrooms and two bathrooms. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lookout Valley Elementary F TN #231/952 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 High Lookout Valley Middle / High School F TN #237/332 Nat'l #15,355/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Chattanooga

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2582

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chattanooga, TN
• County: Marion · 393,784 people
• City population: 131,999
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 6,288
• Household income: $86,029
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.36%
• Current HPI: 258.6585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B