12970 Highway 8 Business Spc 65 · Winter Gardens, CA 92021

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1971 21 ac lot Est $250k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home in great community. Tax rolls say 3 bedroom but it is actually 4 bedrooms with an additional sitting area Perfect for a large family. Beautiful remodeled kitchen and brand new deck with an amazing view. You will love this home. Check it out before it is gone!

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Extra room
• Bright open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• BRIGHT OPEN KITCHEN
• EXTRA ROOM
• ADDITIONAL SITTING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area and lot size reported from assessor data; Parcel number 7740006265
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Community features include street lighting and suburban setting; Property is on a land lease in a mobile home park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces; Located in Rancho Valley mobile home park
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home (24' x 60') — mobile home remains
• Construction: Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Community pool; Level lot with street frontage; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary suite (main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level floorplan; Front door entry; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.6% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,216/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.00%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,984
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12970 Highway 8 Business #121	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,321 (-2%)	3mo	$218,000	$165	89
13162 Highway 8 Business #104	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$260,000	$193	80
13162 Highway 8 Business #200	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+1%)	2mo	$165,000	$121	74
13162 Highway 8 Business #134	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	3mo	$140,000	$108	74
12970 Highway 8 Business #93	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+11%)	2mo	$265,000	$177	73
13162 Highway 8 Business Spc 78	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	10mo	$252,000	$184	70
13217 Aurora Dr #73	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-1%)	10mo	$260,000	$196	58
13217 Aurora Dr #28	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-4%)	8mo	$304,000	$235	56
13162 Highway 8 Business #201	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+11%)	10mo	$277,500	$186	55
13217 Aurora Dr #77	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+1%)	11mo	$330,000	$243	54
13162 Highway 8 Business SPC 4	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-15%)	8mo	$213,000	$186	51
13217 Aurora Dr Spc 39	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+11%)	7mo	$339,900	$228	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $38,640
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $98,684
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $1,235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,365	-5% $1,300	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,169	+10% $1,104
Rent	-10% $981	-5% $1,108	+0% $1,235	+5% $1,362	+10% $1,489
Rate	-1.0pp $1,330	-0.5pp $1,283	base $1,235	+0.5pp $1,186	+1.0pp $1,136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	0d	1	0.18mi
8410 Los Coches Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,120	$2.36	0d	1	0.60mi
8809 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	4.0	2.0	1350	$3,800	$2.81	0d	1	0.93mi
8424 Pueblo Rd Unit 8424 Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	0d	1	1.08mi
1704 Broadway El Cajon, CA	4.0	2.0	1808	$4,800	$2.65	9d	1	1.08mi
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	0d	1	1.10mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	3d	1	1.14mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	0d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $189,000
17. 2026-02-17
    status Active
18. 2026-02-02
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2025-12-07
    listed $199,900 Active
20. 2024-11-05
    historical
21. 2024-09-11
    listed $270,000 Active
22. 2024-09-05
    historical
23. 2022-08-26
    soldstatus $170,000 Sold 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Spacious home in great community. Tax rolls say 3 bedroom but it is actually 4 bedrooms with an additional sitting area Perfect for a large family. Beautiful remodeled kitchen and brand new deck with an amazing view. You will love this home. Check it out before it is gone!

24. 2022-07-11
    status Pending 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Spacious home in great community. Tax rolls say 3 bedroom but it is actually 4 bedrooms with an additional sitting area Perfect for a large family. Beautiful remodeled kitchen and brand new deck with an amazing view. You will love this home. Check it out before it is gone!

25. 2022-07-01
    listed $175,000 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Spacious home in great community. Tax rolls say 3 bedroom but it is actually 4 bedrooms with an additional sitting area Perfect for a large family. Beautiful remodeled kitchen and brand new deck with an amazing view. You will love this home. Check it out before it is gone!

26. 2020-05-30
    soldstatus $69,000 Sold
27. 2020-04-30
    status Pending
28. 2020-04-21
    price $79,900
29. 2020-04-19
    status Active
30. 2020-04-10
    status Pending
31. 2020-02-11
    listed $79,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,088
• − Management: −$3,088
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $12,556
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,013
• After-tax cash flow: $11,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+136.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed $199,900 CRMLS
• 2024-11-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-11 Listed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-05 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2022-08-26 Sold (MLS) $170,000 SDMLS
• 2022-07-11 Pending — SDMLS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $175,000 SDMLS
• 2020-05-30 Sold (MLS) $69,000 SDMLS
• 2020-04-30 Pending — SDMLS
• 2020-04-21 Price Changed $79,900 SDMLS
• 2020-04-19 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2020-04-10 Pending — SDMLS
• 2020-02-11 Listed $79,990 SDMLS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2013): $364 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.