118 Canvasback N · Baytown, TX 77523

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 164 Days on market

Built 1995 Fair condition 6,651 sqft lot $82/sqft · 33% below area Est $149k · 33% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Mobile Home. Potential Investment Property!!! Owner also owns empty lot next door and is willing to sell both properties together for the right price!

Key facts

• 6,651 sq ft lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 164 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $942 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.27%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -32.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3110 Bay Oaks Harbor Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$169,000	$139	90
122 Egret Canal S	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	2mo	$149,000	$141	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $44,839
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $120,515
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $942

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-01-05
    listed $99,900 Active 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Mobile Home. Potential Investment Property!!! Owner also owns empty lot next door and is willing to sell both properties together for the right price!

14. 2025-12-31
    historical
15. 2025-10-02
    price $99,900
16. 2025-09-13
    price $110,000
17. 2025-09-08
    price $114,999
18. 2025-08-29
    price $119,999
19. 2025-08-21
    price $124,999
20. 2025-08-21
    price $129,999
21. 2025-08-04
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $10,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,496
• After-tax cash flow: $8,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Upgrades to the interior and exterior, along with landscaping, can significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated appearance
• Minor Bathtub and fixtures — Worn appearance
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate Hardwood floors — Signs of wear
• Moderate Paint — Faded appearance
• Moderate Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops and fixtures — New countertops and fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both HVAC and electrical system maintenance — Ensures systems are functioning properly and energy-efficient

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Dated appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtub and fixtures · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Hardwood floors · Signs of wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint · Faded appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and needs trimming	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$13,000–66,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops and fixtures — New countertops and fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both HVAC and electrical system maintenance — Ensures systems are functioning properly and energy-efficient ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $114,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $119,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $124,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $129,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $135,000 HARMLS