Whitmore Plan · Lakeland, FL 33811

$417,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,267 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Embrace your space in the Whitmore. The open, designer kitchen with walk-in pantry and center island is ideal for the home chef and additional storage under the stairs is great for bulk grocery overflow. The 1st floor bedroom it a perfect place for a home office. Plus, with a sizeable loft, enjoy the home theater or gym you've been dreaming of.

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• 1st floor bedroom
• Sizeable loft

Tags

• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• 1ST FLOOR BEDROOM
• SIZEABLE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $417,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $415,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $418k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-517 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #482 of 571 statewide, top 85%, 801 students, 63% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $297,549 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,000
• List price: $417,990
• Delta: 0.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4948 Cucumber St	0.08mi	5/4.5	3,416 (+5%)	1mo	$533,480	$156	86
5396 Cloudberry Ave	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,313 (+1%)	2mo	$478,900	$145	74
5380 Cloudberry Ave	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,313 (+1%)	1mo	$479,900	$145	73
5360 Cloudberry Ave	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,313 (+1%)	1mo	$479,900	$145	70
5344 Cloudberry Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,313 (+1%)	1mo	$484,900	$146	68
5699 Siltstone St	0.48mi	5/3.0	2,983 (-9%)	1mo	$415,000	$139	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-108,872
• Equity at exit: $61,878

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-170,748
• Equity at exit: $35,882

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 55.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $499,480 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 181 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -23.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,225/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $-517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,630

Max offer price $340,141

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-231	-5% $-374	+0% $-517	+5% $-661	+10% $-804
Rent	-10% $-752	-5% $-635	+0% $-517	+5% $-400	+10% $-282
Rate	-1.0pp $-308	-0.5pp $-412	base $-517	+0.5pp $-625	+1.0pp $-734

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5038 Foxglove Cir Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2670	$2,800	$1.05	0d	1	0.31mi
5493 Siltstone St Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2885	$2,600	$0.90	9d	1	0.39mi
5694 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2885	$2,600	$0.90	88d	1	0.70mi
5463 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2419	$2,800	$1.16	119d	1	0.75mi
4301 Salt Springs Ln Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2585	$2,600	$1.01	99d	1	0.76mi
5978 Shingle Creek Rd Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2616	$2,675	$1.02	73d	1	0.80mi
5978 Shingle Creek Rd Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2616	$2,675	$1.02	80d	1	0.80mi
5316 White Egret Ln Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.5	3305	$3,400	$1.03	9d	1	1.12mi
5276 White Egret Ln Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,761	$1.09	4d	1	1.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $427,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan homeAddressed at 4916 Cucumber St, Lakeland FL 33811
• Construction: Whitmore plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Plan-built home (Whitmore plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 3267 (living area listed separately)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $417,990 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $417,990 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $417,990 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $417,990 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $417,990 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $417,990 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $417,990 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $417,990 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $417,990 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $417,990 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $417,990 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $417,990 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $417,990 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $417,990 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $417,990 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $417,990 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $417,990 Active 125 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $417,990 Active 124 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $417,990 Active 123 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $417,990 Active 122 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $417,990 Active 121 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $417,990 Active 120 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $427,990 Active 119 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $427,990 Active 118 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $427,990 Active 117 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $427,990 Active 116 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $427,990 Active 115 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $427,990 Active 114 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $427,990 Active 113 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $427,990 Active 112 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $427,990 Active 111 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $427,990 Active 110 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $427,990 Active 109 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $427,990 Active 108 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $427,990 Active 106 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $427,990 Active 105 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $427,990 Active 104 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $427,990 Active 103 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $427,990 Active 102 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $427,990 Active 101 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $427,990 Active 100 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $427,990 Active 99 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $427,990 Active 98 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $427,990 Active 97 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $427,990 Active 94 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $427,990 Active 93 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $427,990 Active 92 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $427,990 Active 91 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $427,990 Active 89 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $427,990 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$6,225
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,856
• − Management: −$2,856
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$13,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through exterior painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School D FL #1,171/2,144 Nat'l #14,249/41,679 Middle Southwest Middle School F FL #482/571 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High George W. Jenkins Senior High F FL #340/667 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $427,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan homeAddressed at 4916 Cucumber St, Lakeland FL 33811
• Construction: Whitmore plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Plan-built home (Whitmore plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 3267 (living area listed separately)