317 Moffat Blvd #5 · Manteca, CA 95336

$159,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 153 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $148/sqft · 7% above area Est $149k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Sleepy Hollow Manufactured Home Community, a beautifully renovated park that will feature 22 brand-new homes! A rare opportunity to make your dreams of homeownership come true. Don't miss your chance to own a brand-new 2026 Champion manufactured home in this refreshed and growing community. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a spacious open-concept floor plan perfect for modern living. Enjoy contemporary touches throughout, including a stylish kitchen with brand-new stainless-steel appliances, granite countertops, and soft-close hinges and drawers. The home also includes indoor laundry with washer and dryer hookups for added convenience. Be among the first residents

Key facts

• Stylish kitchen
• Soft-close hinges
• Brand-new home

Tags

• BRAND-NEW HOME
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE HINGES
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $838 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $140,756 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.46%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,273
• List price: $159,950
• Delta: 7.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $20,290
• Equity at exit: $23,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $58,694
• Equity at exit: $13,830

Cash invested: $44,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,399/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $838

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,950

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,988
• Closing costs: $4,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Oak St Manteca, CA	3.0	1.0	1007	$3,045	$3.02	43d	1	0.52mi
225 N Fremont St Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	926	$1,875	$2.02	43d	1	0.55mi
139 W Yosemite Ave Unit 1 Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	948	$1,650	$1.74	2d	1	0.64mi
801 Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,695	$2.76	2d	8	0.72mi
430 Sutter St Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	804	$1,922	$2.39	2d	3	0.74mi
311 Charles Ave Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,750	$2.52	23d	1	0.77mi
222 Elm Ave Unit B Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	18d	1	0.97mi
529 N Lincoln Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	734	$1,900	$2.59	43d	1	0.99mi
200 Northwoods Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,675	$1.86	3d	1	1.00mi
556 N Lincoln Ave Unit 15 Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,895	$2.11	43d	1	1.00mi
366 E Edison St Unit 12 Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	3d	1	1.01mi
218 W Alameda St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,450	$2.45	11d	1	1.03mi
1058 Locust Ave Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,750	$1.89	11d	1	1.03mi
809 Marion St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	910	$2,400	$2.64	43d	1	1.08mi
838 El Dorado St Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,595	$1.78	2d	1	1.09mi
832 Marion St Unit A Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	836	$2,100	$2.51	43d	1	1.12mi
1360 Lakeside Ave Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,980	$2.96	2d	3	1.14mi
1815 Azure Ct Unit C Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	18d	1	1.25mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$2,100	$2.76	23d	1	1.30mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1075	$2,300	$2.14	14d	1	1.30mi
1634 Sierra Creek Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1411	$3,100	$2.20	18d	1	1.33mi
936 W Alameda St Unit A Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,450	$1.63	3d	1	1.46mi
934 W Alameda St Unit B Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,450	$1.63	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,950 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,950 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,950 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,950 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,950 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,950 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,950 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,950 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,950 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,950 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,950 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,950 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,950 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,950 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,950 Active 135 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,960
• − Property taxes: −$2,399
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − Depreciation: −$4,653
• Taxable income: $7,987
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,917
• After-tax cash flow: $8,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new 2026 Champion manufactured home in Sleepy Hollow is move-in ready with modern finishes and contemporary design, offering a great opportunity for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace flooring with higher-end material — Improves living space and adds value.
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal at night.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace flooring with higher-end material — Improves living space and adds value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal at night. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B