16 Serpens Dr #224 · Lillington, NC 27501

$243,390

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Condo · 111 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $158/sqft · at area comps Est $253k · at est. $123/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Hallie Townhome at Powell The Hallie features 1,518 square feet of two-story living space with three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, and a one-car garage. The main level begins with a foyer that opens into a connected kitchen, dining area, and Great Room, creating a clear and functional open layout. The kitchen includes a center island, granite countertops, tile backsplash, and ample cabinet and counter space, with the dining area positioned between the kitchen and living space. A powder room is conveniently located on the first floor. All bedrooms are located on the second level. The owner's suite includes a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with a walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Walk in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• TWO STORY LIVING SPACE
• OPEN LAYOUT
• CENTER ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $243k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Lillington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Angier Elementary (math 21% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,218 of 1,410 statewide, top 87%, 356 students, 80% FRL); Harnett Central Middle (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 1,024 students, 63% FRL); Harnett Central High (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,474 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 51% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 817 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,171 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,305
• List price: $243,390
• Delta: -3.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Serpens Dr #221	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,540 (0%)	1mo	$243,233	$158	98
39 Virgo Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,658 (+8%)	1mo	$255,000	$154	72
237 Chedworth Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,820 (+18%)	0mo	$314,500	$173	62
76 Springfield Ln	1.15mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-1%)	1mo	$265,000	$174	61
456 Chedworth Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-24%)	0mo	$299,900	$256	57
25 Ashcott Dr	1.45mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+4%)	1mo	$315,000	$197	56
46 Foxton Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-14%)	1mo	$319,900	$243	54
31 Rusling Leaf Dr	1.41mi	3/2.5	1,418 (-8%)	0mo	$239,990	$169	52
228 Chapel St	1.12mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+14%)	0mo	$307,990	$176	42
278 Chapel St	1.07mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+14%)	1mo	$322,990	$185	41
319 Providence Creek Dr	1.29mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+21%)	0mo	$342,744	$184	40
157 Gianna Dr	0.80mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,903 (+24%)	1mo	$299,990	$158	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-54,662
• Equity at exit: $36,290

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-75,237
• Equity at exit: $21,044

Cash invested: $68,149 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 2 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27501

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 817
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,276
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,651/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$123
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,285

Max offer price $215,598

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-108	+0% $-192	+5% $-276	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-273	+0% $-192	+5% $-111	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-130	base $-192	+0.5pp $-255	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,848
• Closing costs: $7,302
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Royal Meadow Dr Angier, NC	4.0	2.5	1800	$1,830	$1.02	72d	1	0.08mi
19 Virgo Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.5	1418	$1,850	$1.30	72d	1	0.24mi
50 Chedworth Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,095	$1.51	72d	1	0.40mi
59 Ivy Bank Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,729	$1.31	72d	1	0.47mi
59 Ivy Bank Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,729	$1.31	70d	1	0.47mi
18 March Creek Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	3.0	2.5	1418	$1,800	$1.27	72d	1	1.05mi
198 Moore Creek Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,195	$1.24	63d	1	1.18mi
56 Oxford Dr Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1693	$1,600	$0.95	72d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained paved roadLot dimensions approximately 95' x 20'Zoning: CD-RMXGreen / energy efficient features including ENERGY STAR windows, doors, roof, thermostat, HVAC, insulation, lighting and water heater; use of recyclable/recycled materials and conserving methods; integrated pest management
• HOA & community: Community association (Charleston Management)Annual association feeCommunity amenities: pool, playground, dog park, trails, picnic area, landscaping, maintained grounds, sidewalks, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)Additional open parking availableApproximately 20 open parking spacesTotal parking capacity reported
• Security: Smart lock(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerNatural gas connected
• Home design: Townhouse with two levelsFaces northeast2+ common wallsEntry on ground level
• Construction: Vinyl sidingArchitectural shingle roofSlab foundationBuilt by Mattamy Homes (model: Hallie)
• Exterior features: PatioRain guttersSmart locksPrivacy vinyl fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeStainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air, heat pump)ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipmentCentral airHeat pump coolingENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipmentZoned cooling
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combinationBreakfast barEntrance foyerGranite countersQuartz countersPantryRecessed lightingSmart home featuresSmart thermostatWired for dataWalk-in closet(s)Walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundryLaundry located inside on upper levelGas water heater

HOA detail $123/mo · $1,476/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $243,390 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $243,390 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $243,390 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $243,390 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $243,390 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $243,390 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $243,390 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $243,390 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $243,390 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $243,390 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $243,390 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $243,390 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $243,390 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $243,390 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $243,390 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $243,390 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $243,390 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $243,390 Active 85 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $243,390 Active 84 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $243,390 Active 83 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $243,390 Active 82 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $243,390 Active 81 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $243,390 Active 80 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $243,390 Active 79 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $243,390 Active 78 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $243,390 Active 77 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $243,390 Active 76 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $243,390 Active 75 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $243,390 Active 74 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $243,390 Active 73 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $243,390 Active 72 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $243,390 Active 71 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $243,390 Active 70 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $243,390 Active 69 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $243,390 Active 68 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $243,390 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $243,390 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $243,390 Active 63 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $243,390 Active 60 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $243,390 Active 59 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $243,390 Active 58 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $243,390 Active 57 DOM
43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $243,390 Active 55 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $243,390 Active 52 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $243,390 Active 51 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $243,390 Active 50 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $243,390 Active 49 DOM
48. 2026-06-05
    days on market $243,390 Active 46 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,390 Active 45 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,390 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,634
• − Property taxes: −$3,651
• − Insurance: −$1,217
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − HOA: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$7,080
• Taxable loss: −$6,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and modernize the kitchen.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Freshens up the home's appearance ↑
• Resale Upgrade to kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Harnett Primary Middle Harnett Central Middle F NC #323/475 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Harnett Central High D- NC #334/535 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Lillington

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lillington, NC
• County: Harnett County · 153,758 people
• City population: 21,419
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,806
• Household income: $73,336
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.84%
• Current HPI: 248.5302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained paved roadLot dimensions approximately 95' x 20'Zoning: CD-RMXGreen / energy efficient features including ENERGY STAR windows, doors, roof, thermostat, HVAC, insulation, lighting and water heater; use of recyclable/recycled materials and conserving methods; integrated pest management
• HOA & community: Community association (Charleston Management)Annual association feeCommunity amenities: pool, playground, dog park, trails, picnic area, landscaping, maintained grounds, sidewalks, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)Additional open parking availableApproximately 20 open parking spacesTotal parking capacity reported
• Security: Smart lock(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerNatural gas connected
• Home design: Townhouse with two levelsFaces northeast2+ common wallsEntry on ground level
• Construction: Vinyl sidingArchitectural shingle roofSlab foundationBuilt by Mattamy Homes (model: Hallie)
• Exterior features: PatioRain guttersSmart locksPrivacy vinyl fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeStainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air, heat pump)ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipmentCentral airHeat pump coolingENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipmentZoned cooling
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combinationBreakfast barEntrance foyerGranite countersQuartz countersPantryRecessed lightingSmart home featuresSmart thermostatWired for dataWalk-in closet(s)Walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundryLaundry located inside on upper levelGas water heater

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $243,390 TMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $242,993 TMLS