Kitson Plan · Ennis, TX 75119

$232,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 689 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $232,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $235,033.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($256/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Ennis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#304 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ennis ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: David S Crockett Early Childhood Center (469 students, 82% FRL); Ennis J H (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 886 students, 69% FRL); Ennis H S (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,791 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 574 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 98d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 91% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 689 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $205,039 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 689 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,033
• List price: $232,999
• Delta: -0.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1039 Birkdale Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	4mo	$224,999	$155	87
1052 Neyland Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	1mo	$237,359	$156	80
2219 Neyland Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	0mo	$222,999	$154	78
2142 Neyland Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$226,999	$156	77
2125 Neyland Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	3mo	$223,999	$154	77
2047 Neyland Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	1mo	$233,999	$154	75
2059 Neyland Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	1mo	$234,999	$154	75
1058 Neyland Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	2mo	$215,999	$166	74
1077 Neyland Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	4mo	$218,999	$168	73
2046 Neyland Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	1mo	$222,999	$171	66
2077 Neyland Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	1mo	$220,449	$169	65
5343 Cabot Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$213,999	$163	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-36,799
• Equity at exit: $35,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-30,594
• Equity at exit: $20,321

Cash invested: $65,809 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 50 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $237,999 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 22 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75119

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 574
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,233
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $235,033

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $103	+0% $21	+5% $-60	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-61	+0% $21	+5% $104	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $81	base $21	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,758
• Closing costs: $7,051
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2065 Shady Oaks Dr Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,000	$1.16	31d	1	0.35mi
1215 Knoll Dr Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	98d	1	1.11mi
1107 Knoll Dr Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1739	$2,000	$1.15	76d	1	1.17mi
1200 Canterbury Ln Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,250	$1.49	106d	1	1.27mi
1213 Wildflower St Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,100	$1.24	97d	1	1.35mi
1208 Wildflower St Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,899	$1.46	0d	1	1.38mi
2907 Hadley Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,150	$1.38	82d	1	1.40mi
907 Wildflower St Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,199	$1.28	102d	1	1.48mi
1101 Odlozil Ln Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	48d	1	1.49mi
1209 Vicksburg Dr Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1759	$1,970	$1.12	111d	1	1.50mi
904 Wildflower St Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,099	$1.61	120d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $232,999 Active 689 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $232,999 Active 688 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $232,999 Active 687 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $232,999 Active 686 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $232,999 Active 685 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $232,999 Active 684 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $232,999 Active 683 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $232,999 Active 682 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $232,999 Active 681 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $232,999 Active 680 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $232,999 Active 679 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $232,999 Active 678 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $232,999 Active 677 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $232,999 Active 676 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $232,999 Active 670 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $232,999 Active 669 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $232,999 Active 667 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $262,999 Active 665 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $262,999 Active 664 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $262,999 Active 663 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $262,999 Active 662 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $262,999 Active 661 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $262,999 Active 659 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $262,999 Active 658 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $262,999 Active 657 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $262,999 Active 656 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $262,999 Active 655 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $262,999 Active 654 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $262,999 Active 653 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $262,999 Active 652 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $262,999 Active 651 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $262,999 Active 650 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $262,999 Active 649 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $262,999 Active 648 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $262,999 Active 647 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $262,999 Active 646 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $262,999 Active 645 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $262,999 Active 644 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $262,999 Active 643 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $262,999 Active 642 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $262,999 Active 640 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $262,999 Active 639 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $262,999 Active 638 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $262,999 Active 637 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $262,999 Active 634 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $262,999 Active 632 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $262,999 Active 631 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $262,999 Active 629 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $262,999 Active 627 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,999 Active 626 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,165
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$6,837
• Taxable loss: −$3,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$890
• After-tax cash flow: $1,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary David S Crockett Early Childhood Center Middle Ennis J H D- TX #553/1,662 Nat'l #5,285/14,009 High Ennis H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ennis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818540
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,105
• Composite: 34.14/100
• National rank: #5283
• State rank: #411 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Ennis

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #6893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ennis, TX
• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 31,866
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,866
• Household income: $77,053
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.30%
• Current HPI: 253.0134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $262,999 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-07 Listed $261,999 Zillow