16386 SE 135th Ave #19 · Happy Valley, OR 97015

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Condo · 7 Days on market

Built 1986 $118/sqft · 59% above area $605/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

First time on the market in 38 years! This lovingly maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Clackamas is beautiful and move-in ready. All the big ticket items have already been done for you. Boasting a new roof and new flooring in 2020, and new furnace and heat pump in 2023. The spacious kitchen was redone in 2020 and features beautiful cabinets, a Bosch dishwasher and a top of the line Fisher & Paykel Stainless Steel Refrigerator. The oversized primary bedroom offers an ensuite bath with walk-in shower and ample storage. The living room includes a cozy wood burning stove and large entertainment center. This home even includes a large family room with a slider that leads out to a covered

Key facts

• Bosch dishwasher
• New furnace
• Heat pump

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW FURNACE
• HEAT PUMP
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BOSCH DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Clackamas River Village park
• HOA & community: Part of Clackamas River Community Cooperative; Monthly association/lot rent: $605; Land lease in place

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway; Extra-deep carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (Country Classic model by Golden West Homes); Single-story main living (floor plan); Built in 1986; No notable view
• Construction: Composition roof; Skirting foundation
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Fenced yard; Tool shed; T-111 siding; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Vaulted ceiling in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite, vaulted ceiling and walk-in closet; Second bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Third bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring in living areas, kitchen, dining and family room; Wall-to-wall carpet in some bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Heat pump cooling; Electric water heater
• Interior features: One-level accessible design with walk-in shower; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Built-in features; Laundry area; Wood stove; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Crawl space foundation; Skirting
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.5% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#76 in OR, #3,386 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Verne A Duncan Elementary School (math 8% / reading 34%, grade F, #353 of 412 statewide, top 87%, 407 students, 32% FRL); Happy Valley Middle School (math 41% / reading 56%, grade C-, #29 of 128 statewide, top 22%, 1,021 students, 25% FRL); Adrienne C. Nelson High School (1,382 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,753
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 59.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,975
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $16,742
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97015

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$605
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $419	-5% $372	+0% $325	+5% $278	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $229	+0% $325	+5% $421	+10% $517
Rate	-1.0pp $408	-0.5pp $367	base $325	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13300 SE Hubbard Rd Clackamas, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$2,290	$2.80	2d	6	0.67mi
12301 SE Hubbard Rd Clackamas, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,063	$2.20	11d	4	0.98mi
13898 SE Rogers Ln Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,599	$1.75	44d	1	1.25mi
14439 SE Oregon Trail Dr Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,615	$1.58	2d	1	1.32mi
14095 SE Summerfield Loop Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1453	$2,695	$1.85	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $605 · $7,260/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $165,000 Active 1565-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $594 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,007/yr (+$84/mo · 169.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,325
• − Management: −$2,325
• − HOA: −$7,260
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$407
• After-tax cash flow: $3,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Happy Valley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #3386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 34,567
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,433
• Household income: $87,333
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.50%
• Current HPI: 295.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $165,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.