104 Mortz Rd · Mohawk, NY 13407

$159,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,853 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1997 1.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to country living with space to spread out! This well-kept 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home offers 1,850 square feet of comfortable living space set on just under 2 acres of picturesque land. Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with plenty of room for both relaxation and entertaining. Outside, the property shines with two new sheds and a barn, perfect for storage. With a blend of open land and mature trees, the setting provides privacy and endless opportunities to enjoy the outdoors. Whether you're looking for peaceful retreat or a place to grow, this property is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• Open land
• Privacy
• Barn

Tags

• PICTURESQUE LAND
• NEW SHEDS
• BARN
• OPEN LAND
• MATURE TREES
• PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($220/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Van Hornesville-Owen D Young Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #567 of 755 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $160k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $146,681 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $40,326
• Equity at exit: $93,018

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $119,985
• Equity at exit: $162,561

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13407

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,824/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $64	+0% $18	+5% $-27	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-40	+0% $18	+5% $76	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $59	base $18	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-12-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-01
   status Active
3. 2025-10-07
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-17
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2004-08-03
   soldstatus $50,000
6. 2004-03-31
   historical
7. 2003-10-03
   listed $60,000
8. 2003-08-06
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,824 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,824 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,824
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$587
• After-tax cash flow: $807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Hornesville-Owen D Young Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622200
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $48,116
• Composite: 40.66/100
• National rank: #7620
• State rank: #567 of 755 in NY

Livability — Mohawk

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #6969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,125

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 286.6312
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-13 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-11-01 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-10-07 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2004-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2003-10-03 Listed $60,000 CNYIS
• 2003-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,824 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.