7040 Strand Cir #201 · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34203

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Condo · 109 Days on market

Built 2004 Good condition $433/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Enjoy serene water views and effortless Florida living in this beautifully maintained second-floor condo in Cypress Strand. This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence with a private garage offers a bright, open layout and tranquil pond views that capture the essence of Florida living. The spacious great room features vaulted ceilings, tile flooring, and sliding glass doors that open to a long screened lanai overlooking the pond —ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The oversized eat-in kitchen provides abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, breakfast bar seating, and a convenient interior laundry closet, making it perfect for both

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Private garage
• Screened lanai

Tags

• PRIVATE GARAGE
• SCREENED LANAI
• OVERSIZED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY CLOSET
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is unfurnished; Association approval required for residents
• Financial info: Total annual association fees listed; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA membership required; Quarterly condo fees (listed as $1,020 quarterly / $340 monthly equivalent); Annual association fee noted ($1,125); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, cable TV, internet, and maintenance of structure and grounds; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Community mailbox; Sidewalks; Pets allowed with size/weight limits (maximum ~25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Unit on 2nd floor; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built with building number 7040
• Exterior features: Covered screened patio/porch; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Tennis courts; Pond view; Mature landscaping; Paved road access; Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer and dryer located inside in a laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (2.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tara Elementary School (math 79% / reading 66%, grade A, #281 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 559 students, 52% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,421
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-70,384
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$433
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,560

Max offer price $225,290

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $47	+0% $-33	+5% $-112	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-132	+0% $-33	+5% $67	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $26	base $-33	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6421 Bay Cedar Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,100	$1.54	25d	1	0.03mi
6351 Bay Cedar Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	25d	1	0.09mi
7037 Scrub Jay Way Unit 7037 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,000	$1.52	25d	1	0.10mi
7224 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	0.17mi
6372 Rookery Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$4,300	$2.32	25d	1	0.18mi
7189 Strand Cir Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,300	$1.68	25d	1	0.19mi
7138 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,000	$1.42	18d	1	0.22mi
7279 Cedar Hollow Cir Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$3,500	$2.59	25d	1	0.26mi
6642 Tailfeather Way Unit Available Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	25d	1	0.48mi
6251 Wingspan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,300	$1.53	25d	1	0.59mi
6738 Peach Tree Creek Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1838	$6,200	$3.37	25d	1	0.63mi
6437 Brook Village Cv Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,958	$1.73	4d	13	0.79mi
7269 Fountain Palm Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,300	$1.42	25d	1	0.80mi
6055 Wingspan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,500	$1.52	25d	1	0.84mi
6718 Virginia Xing University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1721	$5,250	$3.05	25d	1	0.86mi
8110 Misty Wood Ave Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,890	$1.74	4d	18	0.87mi
5808 Nesters Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$5,000	$3.04	25d	1	0.90mi
5939 Sandstone Ave Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$2,900	$1.67	22d	1	1.02mi
6713 Stone River Rd #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	25d	1	1.18mi
6807 Stone River Rd #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,500	$2.71	18d	1	1.20mi
6872 Fairview Ter #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$2,000	$1.48	25d	1	1.29mi
6870 Fairview Ter #6870 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,200	$1.63	18d	1	1.30mi
7186 Lakeside Dr Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,750	$1.81	18d	1	1.33mi
6501 Stone River Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,820	$2.61	18d	2	1.33mi
6501 Stone River Rd Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	25d	1	1.33mi
5905 Doral Dr Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1298	$2,400	$1.85	25d	1	1.36mi
6505 Stone River Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,825	$2.62	18d	3	1.37mi
5515 Fair Oaks St Unit 5515 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,000	$1.99	25d	1	1.39mi
6758 Fairview Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,300	$1.71	25d	1	1.39mi
7341 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	25d	1	1.44mi
5761 Avista Dr Unit 5761 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1284	$4,000	$3.12	25d	1	1.44mi
7350 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,995	$1.88	25d	1	1.45mi
5414 Fair Oaks St Unit 10-D Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,995	$1.99	5d	1	1.46mi
8808 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$2,300	$2.11	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $433 · $5,196/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $230,000
3. 2026-02-09
   price $239,000
4. 2026-01-29
   price $245,000
5. 2026-01-22
   listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,418
• − Management: −$2,418
• − HOA: −$5,196
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$955
• After-tax cash flow: $565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained second-floor condo in Cypress Strand offers a bright, open layout and tranquil pond views. The property is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall aesthetic and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the space more modern and appealing, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall aesthetic and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the space more modern and appealing, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid