1606 Marshall Ave · Waco, TX 76708

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 430 Days on market

Built 1950 6,199 sqft lot $128/sqft · 16% below area Est $166k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3/1 has great potential for maximizing rental income. Property is currently occupied by a Tenant. Lease details upon request. This property can be sold as a one-off or grouped with other properties as an investment package. For further details, please ask.

Key facts

• 6,199 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 429 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 430 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 430 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,020
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -16.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1606 Bryan Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,177 (+8%)	6mo	$209,900	$178	72
1541 Clark Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+8%)	8mo	$175,000	$149	71
3412 N 24th St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,082 (-1%)	1mo	$189,999	$176	69
3816 N 20th St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+1%)	9mo	$119,000	$108	65
2019 Summer Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-8%)	0mo	$169,000	$168	64
1630 Mckenzie Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (+8%)	2mo	$119,000	$101	60
2100 Mcferrin Ave Unit A AND B	0.43mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,057 (-3%)	3mo	$385,000	$364	55
2119 Alexander Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,021 (-6%)	4mo	$134,500	$132	52
3701 N 23rd St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+10%)	5mo	$79,000	$66	52
3908 N 21 A St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,027 (-6%)	11mo	$150,000	$146	49
3701 N 21st St	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (+10%)	6mo	$199,900	$166	46
3645 N 25th St	0.72mi	3/2.0	962 (-12%)	3mo	$175,000	$182	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-15,757
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-15,446
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,610/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,166

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1611 Bryan Ave Unit B Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	838	$985	$1.18	13d	1	0.10mi
1614 Bryan Ave Unit B Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	838	$925	$1.10	13d	1	0.12mi
3400 Adeline Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1232	$1,150	$0.93	43d	1	0.31mi
1621 Alexander Ave Unit A Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,695	$1.21	21d	1	0.48mi
3800 N 21st a St Waco, TX	4.0	2.5	1500	$1,350	$0.90	21d	1	0.59mi
2400 Reuter Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1426	$1,650	$1.16	21d	1	0.72mi
2401 McKenzie Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,300	$1.01	21d	1	0.74mi
2121 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	13d	1	0.77mi
2408 McKenzie Ave Unit A Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,350	$1.55	21d	1	0.77mi
2313 Mitchell Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	804	$1,150	$1.43	21d	1	0.80mi
2612 Alice Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	964	$1,250	$1.30	21d	1	0.85mi
2600 McKenzie Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,395	$1.27	21d	1	0.88mi
712 Proctor Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1184	$1,450	$1.22	21d	1	0.95mi
2504 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,475	$1.43	21d	1	0.97mi
2717 Alexander Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	1.00mi
2712 Mitchell Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	21d	1	1.05mi
2601 Herring Ave Unit 1 Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	989	$1,295	$1.31	43d	1	1.05mi
1818 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1112	$1,625	$1.46	21d	1	1.08mi
2712 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.09mi
2712 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	1.09mi
2805 Mitchell Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,145	$1.12	13d	1	1.10mi
1920 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1216	$1,200	$0.99	43d	1	1.10mi
2000 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.5	1450	$1,800	$1.24	43d	1	1.11mi
2704 Herring Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1286	$1,750	$1.36	21d	1	1.13mi
1825 Cumberland Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,325	$0.95	13d	1	1.13mi
2225 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,100	$1.31	43d	1	1.15mi
1511 Maple Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,450	$0.98	43d	1	1.19mi
2224 Cumberland Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$1,075	$1.40	43d	1	1.25mi
1500 Lake Shore Dr Apt 201 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$1,050	$1.20	13d	1	1.27mi
1500 Lake Shore Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$1,150	$1.31	13d	1	1.27mi
2804 Stewart Dr Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1327	$1,475	$1.11	43d	1	1.28mi
2810 Stewart Dr Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1326	$1,735	$1.31	21d	1	1.28mi
2802 Stewart Dr Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1326	$1,635	$1.23	13d	1	1.29mi
2621 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1108	$1,175	$1.06	21d	1	1.29mi
1600 Lake Shore Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	829	$1,360	$1.64	13d	1	1.32mi
2736 Lake Shore Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,774	$1.71	13d	1	1.33mi
718 Garland Ave Unit b Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	838	$985	$1.18	13d	1	1.34mi
2225 Trice Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	803	$1,300	$1.62	13d	1	1.37mi
2225 Trice Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	803	$1,300	$1.62	43d	1	1.37mi
2714 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	979	$1,300	$1.33	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 430 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 429 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 428 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 427 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 425 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 424 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 422 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 421 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 420 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 419 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 413 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 412 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 411 DOM
17. 2024-10-01
    listed $139,000 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    This 3/1 has great potential for maximizing rental income. Property is currently occupied by a Tenant. Lease details upon request. This property can be sold as a one-off or grouped with other properties as an investment package. For further details, please ask.

18. 2024-08-31
    historical $950
19. 2024-08-13
    listed $950
20. 2024-07-20
    historical $1,195
21. 2024-06-27
    listed $1,195
22. 2024-03-22
    historical
23. 2023-06-14
    listed $149,000
24. 2021-03-29
    historical
25. 2021-03-17
    listed $175,000
26. 2020-03-31
    historical
27. 2019-09-30
    listed $67,700
28. 2019-09-16
    historical
29. 2018-01-30
    listed $67,700
30. 2006-11-01
    soldstatus
31. 2001-03-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$934/yr (+$78/mo · 58.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,610
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$52
• After-tax cash flow: $2,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+105.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-01 Listed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-31 Rental Removed $950 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-13 Listed for Rent $950 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-20 Rental Removed $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-27 Listed for Rent $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-14 Listed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2021-03-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-03-17 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2020-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-09-30 Listed $67,700 NTREIS
• 2019-09-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-01-30 Listed $67,700 NTREIS
• 2006-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,610 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.