Columbus Plan · Dade City, FL 33525

$317,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,874 sqft · SingleFamily · 454 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Serene owner's suite
• Open concept design
• Spacious loft

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• SERENE OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Columbus plan)
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1874 (provided)

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open floor plan (model: Columbus, new construction plan)
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. The $317,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $318,580.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-814/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,701/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 454 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $270,103 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 454 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11784 Brae Way	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,874 (0%)	12mo	$314,000	$168	86
11737 Brae Way	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,874 (0%)	12mo	$324,900	$173	84
11119 Brae Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,824 (-3%)	2mo	$315,900	$173	84
11662 Brae Way	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,874 (0%)	10mo	$319,000	$170	82
11938 Brae Way	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,824 (-3%)	12mo	$344,900	$189	80
12004 Brae Way	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,824 (-3%)	10mo	$329,900	$181	78
11974 Brae Way	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,824 (-3%)	12mo	$334,900	$184	78
12038 Brae Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,824 (-3%)	9mo	$305,150	$167	78
11775 Brae Way	0.09mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	12mo	$339,900	$161	60
11713 Brae Way	0.15mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	10mo	$332,050	$157	58
11732 Brae Way	0.13mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	12mo	$331,510	$157	58
11592 Brae Way	0.27mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	8mo	$329,400	$156	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-55,848
• Equity at exit: $47,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-53,805
• Equity at exit: $27,545

Cash invested: $89,202 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$398 /mo · $4,779/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,787

Max offer price $308,766

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $42	+0% $-68	+5% $-178	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-175	+0% $-68	+5% $39	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $13	base $-68	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,645
• Closing costs: $9,557
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11413 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,700	$1.16	26d	1	0.13mi
28882 Renda Ln San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,390	$2.26	0d	21	1.30mi
11000 Old Pasco Rd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,200	$1.60	1d	1	1.45mi
11279 Old Pasco Rd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,200	$1.60	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $317,900 Active 454 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $317,800 Active 454 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $317,800 Active 453 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $317,700 Active 453 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $317,600 Active 452 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $317,600 Active 451 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $317,600 Active 449 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $317,400 Active 445 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $317,400 Active 444 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $317,400 Active 443 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $317,300 Active 440 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $317,200 Active 439 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $317,200 Active 438 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $327,200 Active 437 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $327,200 Active 436 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,845
• − Property taxes: −$4,779
• − Insurance: −$1,593
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − Depreciation: −$9,268
• Taxable loss: −$6,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,502
• After-tax cash flow: $688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B