8370 Harborview Rd #7 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$329,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 225 Days on market

Built 2000 701 sqft lot $218/sqft · 18% above area Est $280k · 18% over $150/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This well-cared-for 3-bed/2-bath home provides a peaceful setting, thoughtful updates, and affordable monthly expenses, creating an easy, comfortable lifestyle in a 55+ community. Ownership includes 1/18th share of the park. Year: 2000 / 1512 square ft No space rent HOA dues: $150/month (covers water, sewer, streetlights, and park property taxes, NOT home taxes) HOA buy-in fee: $500. Updates on the home include a new water heater, dishwasher, kitchen range, internet thermostat, toilet & shower in master bath, new roof in 2021 and an Electric Vehicle Charger that was installed in August of 2024. Outdoor shed is 10' x 16' with 5' lean-to in back. Located in the desirable Birch Ba

Key facts

• New water heater
• Outdoor shed
• New roof

Tags

• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW ROOF
• ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGER
• OUTDOOR SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-489/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $290,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,024
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: 17.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8370 Harborview Rd #18	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+5%)	14mo	$367,000	$230	79
4702 Anderson Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	1mo	$653,000	$432	76
5001 Fir St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	11mo	$351,250	$250	57
5070 Alder St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	20mo	$341,000	$254	36
8585 Harborview Rd #18	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	10mo	$278,888	$215	32
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #128	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	22mo	$190,984	$142	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $177,519
• Equity at exit: $297,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $525,700
• Equity at exit: $640,923

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,948/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,076

Max offer price $324,003

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8638 Harborview Rd Blaine, WA	3.0	3.0	2200	$4,250	$1.93	13d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectricinternet

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,900 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,900 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,900 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,900 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,900 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $329,900 Active 211 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,900 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $329,900 Active 206 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $329,900
17. 2026-04-17
    price $334,900
18. 2026-03-30
    price $339,000
19. 2026-03-14
    price $349,900
20. 2026-01-29
    price $360,000
21. 2025-11-05
    listed $365,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$4,948
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,903
• − Management: −$2,903
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$5,991
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,438
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $329,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $334,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $339,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $349,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $360,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $365,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-14.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $12 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.