1738 West Stroker Rd · Houston, TX 77532

$224,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · Land · 211 Days on market

Built 2025 5,047 sqft lot $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

READY NOW! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,451 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The prope

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Modern appliances
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SLEEK COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• COVERED PATIO
• TRANQUIL NEIGHBORHOOD

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.05%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-26,190
• Equity at exit: $33,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-18,430
• Equity at exit: $19,453

Cash invested: $62,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,917

Max offer price $224,990

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $276	+0% $213	+5% $149	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $40	-5% $126	+0% $213	+5% $299	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $270	base $213	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,248
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	14d	1	0.15mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	14d	1	0.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $224,990
3. 2026-04-13
   price $229,990
4. 2026-03-30
   price $234,990
5. 2026-02-16
   price $239,990
6. 2026-01-07
   price $260,990
7. 2025-12-22
   price $281,990
8. 2025-11-04
   price $283,990
9. 2025-09-22
   listed $285,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,388 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,117 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,729/yr (+$227/mo · 196.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$270
• After-tax cash flow: $2,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $260,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $281,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $283,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $285,990 HARMLS