390 Morgan Creek Rd · Pendergrass, GA 30567

$369,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,001 sqft · Other · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 0.35 ac lot $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jul 2026! Entertain with ease in the Gibson's bright, open-concept living space. A Jack-and-Jill bath with dual sinks serves the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite boasts a walk-in shower and impressive closet. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less-guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Cabana
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• JACK-AND-JILL BATH
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CABANA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a private asphalt road; Directions available for access to the Preserve at Mountain Creek
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $825 (covers grounds maintenance); Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, and playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Total parking for 4 vehicles; Garage parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 110-volt electric; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story home; Under construction; Built by Meritage Homes; Cement siding; Composition (shingle) roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Under construction
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry; Stone counters; Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Master suite on the main level; Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Master bath with double vanity and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Double vanity in baths; Entrance foyer; Smart home features; Walk-in closets; Insulated windows; No shared/common walls
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $369,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-632 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (41.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (41.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#174 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Jackson Elementary School (math 36% / reading 30%, grade F, #567 of 1,228 statewide, top 47%, 687 students, 43% FRL); West Jackson Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #135 of 470 statewide, top 29%, 1,502 students, 28% FRL); Jackson County High School (math 20% / reading 17%, grade F, #254 of 424 statewide, top 61%, 1,833 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $217,603 (41.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,000
• List price: $369,990
• Delta: -4.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $171,456
• Equity at exit: $350,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $536,198
• Equity at exit: $755,741

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30567

• Home prices YoY: 14.7%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $956/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,976

Max offer price $277,419

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-411	-5% $-522	+0% $-632	+5% $-742	+10% $-852
Rent	-10% $-804	-5% $-718	+0% $-632	+5% $-546	+10% $-460
Rate	-1.0pp $-436	-0.5pp $-533	base $-632	+0.5pp $-732	+1.0pp $-835

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 Sope Creek Cir Pendergrass, GA	4.0	3.0	2479	$2,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.13mi
653 Glenn Gee Rd Pendergrass, GA	3.0	2.5	2529	$2,350	$0.93	23d	1	0.48mi
63 Steel Trl Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	2156	$2,160	$1.00	45d	1	0.64mi
59 Constitution Ave Pendergrass, GA	3.0	3.5	2265	$2,200	$0.97	23d	1	0.70mi
15 Constitution Ave Pendergrass, GA	3.0	3.5	2265	$2,250	$0.99	23d	1	0.70mi
542 Glenn Gee Rd Pendergrass, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,813	$2.45	15d	1	0.73mi
228 Banner Rd Pendergrass, GA	3.0	2.5	1455	$1,900	$1.31	23d	1	0.74mi
25 Blue River Ct Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1928	$1,899	$0.98	45d	1	0.76mi
149 Star Ct Pendergrass, GA	3.0	2.5	1455	$1,900	$1.31	23d	1	0.76mi
100 Mission Blvd Pendergrass, GA	3.0	2.5	1831	$1,950	$1.06	15d	1	0.79mi
107 Wynn Way Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1928	$2,300	$1.19	23d	1	0.82mi
916 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1904	$1,995	$1.05	15d	1	1.02mi
929 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,901	$0.95	15d	1	1.03mi
960 Walnut Creek Cir Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,850	$0.93	45d	1	1.16mi
960 Walnut Creek Cir Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,850	$0.93	23d	1	1.16mi
732 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1829	$1,910	$1.04	15d	1	1.21mi
731 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,799	$1.11	45d	1	1.21mi
706 Independence Ave Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1829	$1,900	$1.04	45d	1	1.27mi
11 Darling Ln Pendergrass, GA	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,900	$1.03	45d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $369,990 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $369,990 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,990 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,990 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,990 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,990 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,990 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,990 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,990 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $369,990 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,990 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $369,990 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,480 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,480 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,480 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,480 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $399,480 Active 854-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jul 2026! Entertain with ease in the Gibson's bright, open-concept living space. A Jack-and-Jill bath with dual sinks serves the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite boasts a walk-in shower and impressive closet. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less-guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

18. 2026-05-06
    listed $399,480 New 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jul 2026! Entertain with ease in the Gibson's bright, open-concept living space. A Jack-and-Jill bath with dual sinks serves the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite boasts a walk-in shower and impressive closet. New energy-efficient move-in ready homes in Pendergrass include a washer, dryer, fridge, and whole home blinds, plus they can be closing-ready in 60 days or less-guaranteed. (You'll be reimbursed up to $5,000 in expenses related to delays we cause.) Have it all: Relax in your primary bedroom, enjoy your back patio, and experience the community pool and cabana, all with easy access to I-85 and nearby Lake Lanier. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $956 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,404 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,448/yr (+$204/mo · 256.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$956
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$14,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,576
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 1302940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,773
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5566
• State rank: #50 of 174 in GA

Livability — Pendergrass

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #10962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pendergrass, GA
• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 5,487
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,487
• Household income: $97,181
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 115.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.83%
• Current HPI: 364.4902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $369,990 FMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $369,990 GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $399,480 FMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $399,480 GAMLS