Bonds Plan · Cantonment, FL 32533

$256,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily · 244 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Two secondary bedrooms surround a full bathroom at the front of the home, leading to an open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A lavish owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner and features an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 243 days

🏗️ New construction. The $256,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,683.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jim Allen Elementary School (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 677 students, 61% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 911 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,759 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,683
• List price: $256,990
• Delta: -8.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
842 Bella Terra Way Unit HS 3C	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	0mo	$258,990	$201	95
1512 Paisley Dr Unit 4A	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	1mo	$257,990	$200	93
827 Bella Terra Way Lot 12E	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	3mo	$246,990	$191	92
1537 Paisley Dr Lot 4B	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	4mo	$244,990	$190	89
1099 Pine Top Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+3%)	7mo	$285,000	$214	81
552 Cedar Tree Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,278 (-1%)	4mo	$248,000	$194	64
1097 Sandhills Ln Lot 2F	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+14%)	11mo	$264,990	$180	64
939 Pine Top Ln Unit 9B	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	6mo	$294,200	$206	53
927 Pine Top Ln Unit 6B	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	8mo	$296,000	$208	50
904 Rustling Pine Rd Unit 22B	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	5mo	$299,700	$210	50
924 Rustling Pines Rd Unit 17B	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	8mo	$296,600	$208	50
1123 Green Gate Rd Lot 8F	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+14%)	9mo	$270,990	$184	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-68,387
• Equity at exit: $41,702

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-89,168
• Equity at exit: $24,182

Cash invested: $78,311 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.9 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,990 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 911
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,195/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,447

Max offer price $227,210

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-169	-5% $-266	+0% $-363	+5% $-459	+10% $-556
Rent	-10% $-520	-5% $-441	+0% $-363	+5% $-284	+10% $-206
Rate	-1.0pp $-222	-0.5pp $-291	base $-363	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,921
• Closing costs: $8,390
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1116 Coniferous Ave Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	36d	1	0.51mi
1116 Coniferous Ave Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	10d	1	0.51mi
408 Forrest St Cantonment, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	13d	1	0.73mi
2107 Sandhill St Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,300	$1.28	107d	1	1.29mi
20 Spoonbill St Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,800	$1.41	107d	1	1.35mi
2176 Sandhill St Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1417	$2,200	$1.55	34d	1	1.43mi
2176 Sandhill St Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1417	$2,100	$1.48	11d	1	1.43mi
2176 Sandhill St Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1417	$2,200	$1.55	10d	1	1.43mi
2176 Sandhill St Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1417	$2,200	$1.55	21d	1	1.43mi
2176 Sandhill St Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1417	$2,000	$1.41	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $256,990 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $256,990 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $256,990 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $256,990 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $256,990 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $256,990 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $256,990 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $256,990 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $256,990 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $256,990 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $256,990 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $256,990 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $256,990 Active 231 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $256,990 Active 230 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $256,990 Active 229 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $256,990 Active 228 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $256,990 Active 227 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $256,990 Active 226 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $256,990 Active 225 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $256,990 Active 224 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $256,990 Active 223 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $256,990 Active 222 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $256,990 Active 221 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $256,990 Active 220 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $256,990 Active 219 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $256,990 Active 218 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $256,990 Active 217 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $256,990 Active 216 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $256,990 Active 215 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $256,990 Active 214 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $256,990 Active 213 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $256,990 Active 212 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $256,990 Active 211 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $256,990 Active 210 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $256,990 Active 209 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $256,990 Active 208 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $256,990 Active 207 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $256,990 Active 206 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $256,990 Active 205 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $256,990 Active 204 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $256,990 Active 203 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $256,990 Active 202 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $256,990 Active 200 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $256,990 Active 199 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $256,990 Active 198 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $256,990 Active 197 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $256,990 Active 196 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $256,990 Active 195 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $256,990 Active 194 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $256,990 Active 193 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,667
• − Property taxes: −$4,195
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$8,136
• Taxable loss: −$9,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,247
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern and low-maintenance layout, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jim Allen Elementary School C FL #949/2,144 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Ransom Middle School C+ FL #209/571 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High J. M. Tate Senior High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cantonment

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 334,637 people
• City population: 31,860
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $279,990 Zillow