868 W Desert Sky Dr · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2001 7,579 sqft lot Est $182k · 15% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful fully furnished Chariott Eagle highly upgraded home with 2 bedrooms and a den.2 baths,with master bath has 2 sinks and large shower,large family room,dining room with glass cabinets and a breakfast room,large walk in closet in master bedroom,kitchen has wonderful cabinets,and island, new side-by-side refrig.with water and ice in door,gas stove,large laundry room with sink and freezer and tons of storage with water softener,screened in porch,large shed/workshop.Wonderful private backyard with covered patio with auto sprinkler system,oversized corner lot with landscaping,new AC heatpump,swamp cooler in screened in porch area.Surround sound system, alarm system.You own the lot here! NO HOA!RV parking can be available!Clean subdivision wonderful area!

Key facts

• Extra living space
• As is property
• Owned land

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• OWNED LAND
• SPACIOUS ARIZONA ROOM
• EXTRA LIVING SPACE
• INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY
• AS IS PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area source: builder; Lot size source: assessor; Lot area approximately 7,579 sq ft (assessor)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; RV access/parking; Separate storage area; 2-car carport
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Painted exterior/other construction materials; Composition (asphalt) roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Sprinklers in rear; Automatic timers for front and back irrigation; Irrigation front and back; Grass in back; Gravel/stone desert front; Corner lot; Screened-in patio(s); Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Evaporative (swamp) cooler
• Interior features: Double vanity; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Screened-in patio; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry (see remarks for details)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Elementary School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,109 statewide, top 96%, 451 students, 89% FRL); Casa Grande Middle School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #197 of 218 statewide, top 91%, 645 students, 84% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $210k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.94%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,286
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1820 N Thornton Rd #908	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (+2%)	3mo	$205,000	$135	83
1869 N Rim Rock Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,520 (+3%)	6mo	$260,000	$171	82
868 W Desert Sky Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+13%)	0mo	$207,000	$123	78
1890 N Ridge Way	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+10%)	3mo	$274,900	$169	75
2054 N Thornton Rd #164	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-2%)	4mo	$123,500	$85	73
2054 N Thornton Rd #186	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,545 (+4%)	1mo	$105,000	$68	71
1837 N Thornton Rd #77	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-12%)	5mo	$199,900	$154	52
450 W Sunwest Dr #143	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,568 (+6%)	11mo	$75,000	$48	47
450 W Sunwest Dr #68	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (-8%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	44
1637 N Sandalwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (-9%)	6mo	$198,500	$148	40
450 W Sunwest Dr #114	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,328 (-10%)	6mo	$59,000	$44	38
450 W Sunwest Dr #17	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-9%)	11mo	$92,500	$69	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,921
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $40,843
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $801/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,589

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $508	-5% $449	+0% $389	+5% $330	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $307	+0% $389	+5% $471	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $495	-0.5pp $443	base $389	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	26d	1	0.22mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	6d	1	0.25mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	26d	1	0.29mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	26d	1	0.48mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	26d	1	0.50mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	26d	1	0.61mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	6d	1	0.72mi
1113 W Corinthian Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	981	$1,395	$1.42	16d	1	0.82mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	26d	1	0.90mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	26d	1	1.06mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	1.10mi
2356 N Sand Hills Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,995	$1.65	16d	1	1.26mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	1.48mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	25d	1	1.48mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	23d	1	1.48mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $210,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 24 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 23 DOM
4. 2026-05-16
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
5. 2026-05-08
   listed $210,000 Active
6. 2011-11-04
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful fully furnished Chariott Eagle highly upgraded home with 2 bedrooms and a den.2 baths,with master bath has 2 sinks and large shower,large family room,dining room with glass cabinets and a breakfast room,large walk in closet in master bedroom,kitchen has wonderful cabinets,and island, new side-by-side refrig.with water and ice in door,gas stove,large laundry room with sink and freezer and tons of storage with water softener,screened in porch,large shed/workshop.Wonderful private backyard with covered patio with auto sprinkler system,oversized corner lot with landscaping,new AC heatpump,swamp cooler in screened in porch area.Surround sound system, alarm system.You own the lot here! NO HOA!RV parking can be available!Clean subdivision wonderful area!

7. 2011-11-03
   soldstatus $70,000
8. 2011-10-01
   status Pending 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful fully furnished Chariott Eagle highly upgraded home with 2 bedrooms and a den.2 baths,with master bath has 2 sinks and large shower,large family room,dining room with glass cabinets and a breakfast room,large walk in closet in master bedroom,kitchen has wonderful cabinets,and island, new side-by-side refrig.with water and ice in door,gas stove,large laundry room with sink and freezer and tons of storage with water softener,screened in porch,large shed/workshop.Wonderful private backyard with covered patio with auto sprinkler system,oversized corner lot with landscaping,new AC heatpump,swamp cooler in screened in porch area.Surround sound system, alarm system.You own the lot here! NO HOA!RV parking can be available!Clean subdivision wonderful area!

9. 2011-08-29
   listed $71,500 Active 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Beautiful fully furnished Chariott Eagle highly upgraded home with 2 bedrooms and a den.2 baths,with master bath has 2 sinks and large shower,large family room,dining room with glass cabinets and a breakfast room,large walk in closet in master bedroom,kitchen has wonderful cabinets,and island, new side-by-side refrig.with water and ice in door,gas stove,large laundry room with sink and freezer and tons of storage with water softener,screened in porch,large shed/workshop.Wonderful private backyard with covered patio with auto sprinkler system,oversized corner lot with landscaping,new AC heatpump,swamp cooler in screened in porch area.Surround sound system, alarm system.You own the lot here! NO HOA!RV parking can be available!Clean subdivision wonderful area!

10. 2001-05-21
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $801 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,386 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$585/yr (+$49/mo · 73.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$801
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $1,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $4,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1300.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2011-11-04 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ARMLS
• 2011-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-08-29 Listed $71,500 ARMLS
• 2001-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $801 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.