The Jenkins Plan · Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · SingleFamily · 842 Days on market

Good condition $765/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Cash flow +1.5/30.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Palm Harbor "Jenkins" plan. 2 bedroom, 2 bath + Den. 9' flat ceilings & Waterproof Vinyl plank flooring throughout! Large master suite with free standing tub. 8' porch across the front of the house.

Key facts

• Large master suite
• Free standing tub
• Listed 841 days

Tags

• FREE STANDING TUB
• LARGE MASTER SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $270,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $399,545.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (35.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 4.0% in Jensen Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jensen Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 558 students, 45% FRL); Stuart Middle School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 867 students, 49% FRL); Jensen Beach High School (math 53% / reading 71%, grade B-, #98 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 1,584 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 846 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 842 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,637 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 842 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.67%
• DSCR: 0.26
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,545
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -32.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1572 NE 22nd St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,314 (-6%)	6mo	$425,000	$323	75
1780 NE 24th Ter	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,382 (-1%)	3mo	$415,000	$300	74
2024 NE 24th St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (-0%)	4mo	$404,300	$292	70
1644 NE Arch Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,415 (+2%)	1mo	$425,000	$300	64
1701 NE 16th Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,239 (-11%)	4mo	$300,000	$242	64
2387 NE 16th Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (+12%)	6mo	$275,000	$177	58
1466 NE Silver Maple Way	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-7%)	4mo	$370,000	$285	56
757 NE Maranta Terrado	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (-4%)	5mo	$380,000	$286	53
1930 NE 23rd Ter	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,553 (+12%)	5mo	$410,000	$264	52
2495 NE Hickory Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,254 (-10%)	3mo	$401,000	$320	39
901 NE Town Ter	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,551 (+11%)	6mo	$599,000	$386	38
1574 NE Arch Ave Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+15%)	8mo	$432,500	$270	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -52.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-168,154
• Equity at exit: $59,573

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.60×
• Total profit: $-291,246
• Equity at exit: $34,545

Cash invested: $111,873 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,000 ($316/sqft)
• Median days on market: 88 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 846
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,095
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,993/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$765
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-1,554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,464

Max offer price $174,637

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,278	-5% $-1,416	+0% $-1,554	+5% $-1,692	+10% $-1,830
Rent	-10% $-1,751	-5% $-1,653	+0% $-1,554	+5% $-1,456	+10% $-1,357
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,353	-0.5pp $-1,453	base $-1,554	+0.5pp $-1,658	+1.0pp $-1,763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,886
• Closing costs: $11,986
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1590 NE 23rd Ter Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$3,500	$2.60	51d	1	0.25mi
1590 NE 23rd Ter Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$3,500	$2.60	10d	1	0.25mi
2481 NE Collins Cir Unit 5-50 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,600	$1.77	11d	1	0.30mi
2481 NE Collins Cir Unit 5-50 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,600	$1.77	0d	1	0.30mi
1999 NE Collins Cir Unit 3-80 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,775	$1.66	164d	1	0.32mi
1971 NE Collins Cir #20 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,850	$1.78	107d	1	0.36mi
2013 NE Collins Cir #50 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,800	$1.99	154d	1	0.36mi
2485 NE 16th Ct Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$4,000	$2.58	10d	1	0.37mi
1585 NE Beacon Dr #1103 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$1,495	$1.56	164d	1	0.39mi
1617 NE Nautical Pl Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$1,850	$1.93	154d	1	0.44mi
1775 NE Dixie Hwy Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	107d	1	0.50mi
2005 NE Ocean Dunes Dr Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,600	$2.17	2d	1	0.50mi
2005 NE Ocean Dunes Dr Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,625	$2.19	17d	1	0.50mi
1431 NE 14th Ct Unit R30 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	10d	1	0.51mi
1411 NE 14th Ct #13 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,450	$2.23	10d	1	0.51mi
1411 NE 14th Ct #13 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,450	$2.23	2d	1	0.51mi
1825 NE Dixie Hwy Unit 2 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,150	$1.92	11d	1	0.52mi
1825 NE Dixie Hwy Unit 2 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,150	$1.92	10d	1	0.52mi
1600 NE Dixie Hwy Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,400	$2.24	2d	2	0.59mi
1600 NE Dixie Hwy Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,400	$2.24	17d	2	0.59mi
1550 NE 13th Ter Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$2,000	$1.57	28d	1	0.63mi
1550 NE 13th Ter Unit B16 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	164d	1	0.63mi
1500 NE 13th Ter Unit G6 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,600	$1.26	48d	1	0.63mi
1550 NE 13th Ter Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	7d	1	0.63mi
2319 NE Rustic Way Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1073	$2,200	$2.05	26d	1	0.65mi
2563 NE Palm Ave Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,400	$2.53	164d	1	0.69mi
2563 NE Palm Ave Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,400	$2.53	1d	1	0.69mi
2831 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,800	$2.24	107d	1	0.69mi
2132 NE Pelican Ter Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	992	$2,300	$2.32	107d	1	0.71mi
687 NE Maranta Terrado Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,995	$2.06	107d	1	0.72mi
1712 NE Seahorse Pl Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$10,000	$6.58	38d	1	0.74mi
1712 NE Seahorse Pl Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$10,000	$6.58	10d	1	0.74mi
2310 NE Park St Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,450	$1.96	51d	1	0.76mi
2411 NE Pinecrest Lakes Blvd Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,500	$1.34	10d	1	0.77mi
2109 NE Flamingo Ter Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	932	$2,400	$2.58	31d	1	0.77mi
2171 NE Pelican Ter Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$3,000	$3.21	26d	1	0.77mi
2447 NE Sharp St Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1305	$2,350	$1.80	0d	1	0.78mi
348 NE Starboard Way Ocean Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,700	$2.25	10d	1	0.79mi
257 NE Coastal Dr Ocean Breeze, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$3,000	$2.27	10d	1	0.80mi
257 NE Coastal Dr Ocean Breeze, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$3,000	$2.27	2d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail $765/mo · $9,180/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-24
   days on market $270,000 Active 842 DOM
2. 2026-08-23
   days on market $270,000 Active 841 DOM
3. 2026-08-22
   days on market $270,000 Active 840 DOM
4. 2026-08-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 839 DOM
5. 2026-08-20
   days on market $270,000 Active 838 DOM
6. 2026-08-19
   days on market $270,000 Active 837 DOM
7. 2026-08-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 836 DOM
8. 2026-08-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 835 DOM
9. 2026-08-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 834 DOM
10. 2026-08-15
    days on market $270,000 Active 833 DOM
11. 2026-08-15
    days on market $270,000 Active 832 DOM
12. 2026-08-13
    days on market $270,000 Active 831 DOM
13. 2026-08-12
    days on market $270,000 Active 830 DOM
14. 2026-08-11
    days on market $270,000 Active 829 DOM
15. 2026-08-10
    days on market $270,000 Active 828 DOM
16. 2026-08-09
    days on market $270,000 Active 827 DOM
17. 2026-08-08
    days on market $270,000 Active 826 DOM
18. 2026-08-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 825 DOM
19. 2026-08-06
    days on market $270,000 Active 824 DOM
20. 2026-08-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 823 DOM
21. 2026-08-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 822 DOM
22. 2026-08-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 821 DOM
23. 2026-07-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 818 DOM
24. 2026-07-29
    days on market $270,000 Active 816 DOM
25. 2026-07-27
    days on market $270,000 Active 814 DOM
26. 2026-07-25
    days on market $270,000 Active 812 DOM
27. 2026-07-23
    days on market $270,000 Active 810 DOM
28. 2026-07-22
    days on market $270,000 Active 809 DOM
29. 2026-07-21
    days on market $270,000 Active 808 DOM
30. 2026-07-18
    days on market $270,000 Active 805 DOM
31. 2026-07-16
    days on market $270,000 Active 803 DOM
32. 2026-07-16
    days on market $270,000 Active 802 DOM
33. 2026-07-14
    days on market $270,000 Active 801 DOM
34. 2026-07-13
    days on market $270,000 Active 800 DOM
35. 2026-07-12
    days on market $270,000 Active 799 DOM
36. 2026-07-11
    days on market $270,000 Active 798 DOM
37. 2026-07-10
    days on market $270,000 Active 797 DOM
38. 2026-07-09
    days on market $270,000 Active 796 DOM
39. 2026-07-08
    days on market $270,000 Active 795 DOM
40. 2026-07-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 794 DOM
41. 2026-07-06
    days on market $270,000 Active 793 DOM
42. 2026-07-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 792 DOM
43. 2026-07-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 791 DOM
44. 2026-07-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 790 DOM
45. 2026-07-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 789 DOM
46. 2026-07-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 788 DOM
47. 2026-06-30
    days on market $270,000 Active 787 DOM
48. 2026-06-29
    days on market $270,000 Active 786 DOM
49. 2026-06-28
    days on market $270,000 Active 785 DOM
50. 2026-06-28
    days on market $270,000 Active 784 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,381
• − Property taxes: −$5,993
• − Insurance: −$1,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − HOA: −$9,180
• − Depreciation: −$11,623
• Taxable loss: −$26,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,243
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,965–$20,895 screening

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner and would benefit from some minor cosmetic improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Improves outdoor living space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jensen Beach Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Stuart Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Jensen Beach High School B- FL #98/667 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Jensen Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jensen Beach, FL
• County: Martin County · 172,383 people
• City population: 23,462
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-05-04 Listed $270,000 Zillow