296 Chestnuthill Dr · Lake, PA 18436

$259,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,731 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1982 0.38 ac lot $150/sqft · 7% below area Est $280k · 7% under $194/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful home in The Hideout, offering exceptional curb appeal with its paved circular driveway and inviting covered front steps. Proudly offered by full-time owners, this well-maintained property showcases an open floor plan designed for comfortable living and easy entertaining. The bright and airy living room features a striking stone backdrop with a cozy wood stove, providing added warmth and charm. Just off the dining area, you'll find a stunning four-season room highlighted by a knotty pine ceiling--perfect for relaxing year-round while enjoying peaceful views. The main level includes a spacious primary bedroom and full bathroom for convenient one-level living, along with a washer and dryer on the main floor for added ease and accessibility. Upstairs, the loft serves as a versatile second bedroom, ideal for guests or additional living space. The finished lower level boasts a huge recreation room with walkout access, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, hobbies, or a home gym. Ideally located near the clubhouse, fitness center, and golf course, this home provides easy access to The Hideout's many amenities. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat, this property delivers comfort, character, and a prime location.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Knotty pine ceiling
• Covered front steps

Tags

• PAVED CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• COVERED FRONT STEPS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FOUR-SEASON ROOM
• KNOTTY PINE CEILING
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $260k implies a 330% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $211,086 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,382
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -7.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 N Fairway Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (+2%)	1mo	$257,000	$146	83
14 Par Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,691 (-2%)	2mo	$299,000	$177	67
176 N Fairway Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,787 (+3%)	6mo	$298,000	$167	65
288 S Fairway Dr Lot 4101	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+4%)	6mo	$330,000	$183	60
97 Ridgeview Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,852 (+7%)	9mo	$258,000	$139	57
59 W Shore Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,486 (-14%)	9mo	$529,000	$356	50
146 N Fairway Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,944 (+12%)	14mo	$325,000	$167	49
3502 Chestnut Hill Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,892 (+9%)	6mo	$167,500	$89	48
46 Wedge Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,572 (-9%)	10mo	$359,900	$229	46
88 S Fairway Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,906 (+10%)	1mo	$279,000	$146	44
47 S Fairway Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,569 (-9%)	11mo	$215,000	$137	43
76 Wedge Dr Lot 2982	0.53mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,918 (+11%)	8mo	$350,000	$182	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $126,713
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $385,085
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,841/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $218,484

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $259,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    price $275,000 1293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1293 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful home in The Hideout, offering exceptional curb appeal with its paved circular driveway and inviting covered front steps. Proudly offered by full-time owners, this well-maintained property showcases an open floor plan designed for comfortable living and easy entertaining. The bright and airy living room features a striking stone backdrop with a cozy wood stove, providing added warmth and charm. Just off the dining area, you'll find a stunning four-season room highlighted by a knotty pine ceiling--perfect for relaxing year-round while enjoying peaceful views. The main level includes a spacious primary bedroom and full bathroom for convenient one-level living, along with a washer and dryer on the main floor for added ease and accessibility. Upstairs, the loft serves as a versatile second bedroom, ideal for guests or additional living space. The finished lower level boasts a huge recreation room with walkout access, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, hobbies, or a home gym. Ideally located near the clubhouse, fitness center, and golf course, this home provides easy access to The Hideout's many amenities. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat, this property delivers comfort, character, and a prime location.

17. 2026-02-12
    listed $285,000 Active 1293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1293 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful home in The Hideout, offering exceptional curb appeal with its paved circular driveway and inviting covered front steps. Proudly offered by full-time owners, this well-maintained property showcases an open floor plan designed for comfortable living and easy entertaining. The bright and airy living room features a striking stone backdrop with a cozy wood stove, providing added warmth and charm. Just off the dining area, you'll find a stunning four-season room highlighted by a knotty pine ceiling--perfect for relaxing year-round while enjoying peaceful views. The main level includes a spacious primary bedroom and full bathroom for convenient one-level living, along with a washer and dryer on the main floor for added ease and accessibility. Upstairs, the loft serves as a versatile second bedroom, ideal for guests or additional living space. The finished lower level boasts a huge recreation room with walkout access, offering endless possibilities for entertaining, hobbies, or a home gym. Ideally located near the clubhouse, fitness center, and golf course, this home provides easy access to The Hideout's many amenities. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend retreat, this property delivers comfort, character, and a prime location.

18. 2002-02-07
    soldstatus $60,500
19. 1998-09-23
    soldstatus $62,000
20. 1998-06-23
    soldstatus $43,000
21. 1991-10-28
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,841 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,474 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: +$632/yr (+$53/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,841
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$7,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,755
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+323.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $275,000 PWMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $285,000 PWMLS
• 2002-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 1998-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,841 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.