231 Hamburg St · Buffalo, NY 14204

$229,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,640 sqft · Other public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1900 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

$1590/month in rental income. Total of 3 units. Upper and lower in the main house. Cottage in the back. Vinyl siding. 2 heaters and 2 hot water heaters replaced June 2014. STILL AVAILABLE!! SERIOUS CASH BUYERS ONLY

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,162/mo this rent would consume 92% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 945% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-11,986
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $38,611
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14204

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $376	+0% $311	+5% $-16	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $226	+0% $311	+5% $397	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $370	base $311	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-06
   listed $229,900 Active
3. 2025-08-11
   soldstatus $220,000
4. 2017-09-29
   soldstatus $75,000 Closed Sale or Rented 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   $1590/month in rental income. Total of 3 units. Upper and lower in the main house. Cottage in the back. Vinyl siding. 2 heaters and 2 hot water heaters replaced June 2014. STILL AVAILABLE!! SERIOUS CASH BUYERS ONLY

5. 2017-09-29
   soldstatus $75,000

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   $1590/month in rental income. Total of 3 units. Upper and lower in the main house. Cottage in the back. Vinyl siding. 2 heaters and 2 hot water heaters replaced June 2014. STILL AVAILABLE!! SERIOUS CASH BUYERS ONLY

6. 2017-07-06
   status Pending Sale 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   $1590/month in rental income. Total of 3 units. Upper and lower in the main house. Cottage in the back. Vinyl siding. 2 heaters and 2 hot water heaters replaced June 2014. STILL AVAILABLE!! SERIOUS CASH BUYERS ONLY

7. 2017-04-21
   price $85,000 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   $1590/month in rental income. Total of 3 units. Upper and lower in the main house. Cottage in the back. Vinyl siding. 2 heaters and 2 hot water heaters replaced June 2014. STILL AVAILABLE!! SERIOUS CASH BUYERS ONLY

8. 2017-04-05
   listed $79,900 Active 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   $1590/month in rental income. Total of 3 units. Upper and lower in the main house. Cottage in the back. Vinyl siding. 2 heaters and 2 hot water heaters replaced June 2014. STILL AVAILABLE!! SERIOUS CASH BUYERS ONLY

9. 2011-08-29
   soldstatus $39,900 168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (168 chars)

   $1400 in Monthly Rental Income. Separate Tenant-Paid Utilities. Long Term Tenants. Low Maintenance Vinyl Siding. Two units in Front House with One Unit in Rear Cottage.

10. 2011-05-31
    listed $39,900 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    $1400 in Monthly Rental Income. Separate Tenant-Paid Utilities. Long Term Tenants. Low Maintenance Vinyl Siding. Two units in Front House with One Unit in Rear Cottage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,181 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,704/yr (+$142/mo · 357.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 88% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$1,816
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$66
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $3,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,932
• Household income: $28,182
• Rent vs Own: 73.5% rent · 26.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 945.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Current HPI: 312.6232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+476.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-29 Sold (MLS) $75,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-07-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-04-21 Price Changed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-04-05 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2011-08-29 Sold (MLS) $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2011-05-31 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $476 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.