180 Bliss Ln · Mexico Beach, FL 32465

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2004

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres.

Key facts

• End of dead end road
• 300 acres
• Beach access

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• END OF DEAD END ROAD
• 300 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-363/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.0% in Mexico Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gulf (rural): math 47% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #49 of 73 in FL (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 302 units permitted in Gulf County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gulf County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $170k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,098 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $90,595
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $268,167
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32465

• Home prices YoY: 25.5%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $863/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $164,663

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $170,000 Active
18. 2018-09-27
    soldstatus $80,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres. Agent to Agent Remarks: Agent Inbox or call for code. Office Remarks: Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres.

19. 2018-09-27
    soldstatus $80,000 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres. Agent to Agent Remarks: Agent Inbox or call for code. Office Remarks: Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres.

20. 2018-06-01
    listed $94,900 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres. Agent to Agent Remarks: Agent Inbox or call for code. Office Remarks: Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres.

21. 2018-06-01
    listed $94,900 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres. Agent to Agent Remarks: Agent Inbox or call for code. Office Remarks: Short walk and easy access to Whitfield Landing Boat Launch. Home plus lot next door! Features a large covered front porch perfect for your rocking chair. Nice quite neighborhood for peaceful country living. Property is at end of dead end road and on other side of property is 227 acres.

22. 2015-03-06
    soldstatus $75,000
23. 2004-08-17
    soldstatus $65,000
24. 2004-08-13
    soldstatus $65,000
25. 2004-06-10
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$863
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gulf
• NCES district ID: 1200690
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,047
• Composite: 38.63/100
• National rank: #4154
• State rank: #49 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mexico Beach

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #12224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,940

Population outlook (Gulf County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,677 people
• By 2030: 15,538 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 15,386 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 15,043 · -4.0%
• By 2075: 13,793 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 10,793 · -31.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gulf

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.2) · D 22.6% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -39.3pp · 2024: -54.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.2 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+42.0 2008: R+39.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.74%
• Current HPI: 421.7879
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+161.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $170,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) $80,000 RAFGC
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-06-01 Listed $94,900 RAFGC
• 2018-06-01 Listed $94,900 CPARMLS
• 2015-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-13 Sold (MLS) $65,000 RAFGC
• 2004-06-10 Listed $65,000 RAFGC

Property tax history

+25.1%/yr

Latest (2018): $863 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.