3000 Shoreside Dr · Columbia, MO 65203

$180,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1983 1.05 ac lot $345/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an online auction. The starting bid of $180,000 does not reflect the selling price. Sells to High Bidder! No Reserve! Rare opportunity in Lake Woodrail featuring a lakefront home and adjacent vacant lot (offered separately) totaling 1.05± acres. This spacious home offers approx. 4,180± finished sq. ft. with stunning lake views, mature trees, and multiple outdoor living spaces. Features include 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, 1 half bath, formal living and dining rooms, large family room with fireplace, granite countertops, finished walkout basement, and 3-car garage. Main-level study with full bath provides flexible living options. Multiple decks overlook the lake. New roof

Key facts

• Large family room
• Lake views
• Lakefront home

Tags

• LAKEFRONT HOME
• LAKE VIEWS
• MATURE TREES
• MULTIPLE OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES
• FORMAL LIVING AND DINING ROOMS
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly/periodic fee of $164

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Below-grade finished area present
• Exterior features: Deck; Waterfront lot on a lake; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Gas/log or wood fireplace serving family room and kitchen; Basement with walk-out access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Russell Blvd. Elem. (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 460 students, 18% FRL); Ann Hawkins Gentry Middle (math 40% / reading 47%, grade D, #127 of 391 statewide, top 34%, 719 students, 31% FRL); Rock Bridge Sr. High (math 39% / reading 68%, grade C-, #83 of 521 statewide, top 16%, 2,032 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $598,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3113 Shoreside Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	3,168 (0%)	3mo	$449,900	$142	90
1004 Rollingwood Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,090 (-2%)	3mo	$449,000	$145	80
2403 Lynnwood Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	3,152 (-0%)	2mo	$475,000	$151	79
1116 Northshore Dr	0.14mi	4/4.0	3,304 (+4%)	7mo	$415,000	$126	76
3405 Woodrail Ter	0.43mi	4/3.5	3,380 (+7%)	2mo	$445,000	$132	66
2615 Burrwood Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,750 (-13%)	3mo	$349,900	$127	63
1316 Torrey Pines Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,990 (-6%)	8mo	$405,000	$135	56
1308 Vintage Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,082 (-3%)	5mo	$385,000	$125	56
2503 Lynnwood Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,729 (-14%)	10mo	$362,000	$133	52
3505 Godfrey Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,762 (-13%)	4mo	$449,900	$163	48
2512 Cimarron Dr	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,466 (+9%)	10mo	$485,000	$140	45
1419 Torrey Pines Dr	0.70mi	4/4.0	3,560 (+12%)	10mo	$529,000	$149	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,522
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $68,913
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65203

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,437/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$345
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $389	+0% $338	+5% $287	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $231	+0% $338	+5% $446	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $429	-0.5pp $384	base $338	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3104 Oak Lawn Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.5	2476	$3,500	$1.41	45d	1	0.25mi
3006 Lynnwood Dr Columbia, MO	5.0	3.0	2250	$2,400	$1.07	23d	1	0.38mi
3405 Woodrail Ter Unit 3405 Columbia, MO	4.0	3.5	3380	$3,250	$0.96	15d	1	0.45mi
201-203 Briarcrest Ct Columbia, MO	4.0	3.5	2947	$2,300	$0.78	45d	1	0.86mi
1008 Royal Birkdale Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,450	$1.08	45d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $345 · $4,140/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $180,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,437 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,437 · $453/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$5,437
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,619
• − Management: −$2,619
• − HOA: −$4,140
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $1,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $3,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MO
• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 61,539
• Household income: $79,960
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1991.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Chinese 2% Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.18%
• Current HPI: 194.3615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.09%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $180,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,437 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.