4 Treeline Cir #4 · Beacon, NY 10516

$147,499

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Condo · 89 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition $550/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A RARE FIND! 2015 mobile home in lovely coop community. Inside so light and bright with beautiful white cabinets. This is a wonderful home with lots of upgrades including upgraded appliances. Newer modern bathroom with large tile shower. Mini split system is 220V. Runs AC and heat. Also propane hot air furnace. Hot water on demand system. New wood look floors. Outside nicely landscaped with a covered deck. 2 Sheds, blacktop driveway and space for gardening. Low monthly lease includes taxes, garbage. Monthly fee $375 plus your taxes.. total about $550 a month. One homeowner must be 55 or over to live here. Sale includes one share of stock. Taxes, year built are approximate. Tax varies because of individual NYS programs etc. Buyer must be approved by association.

Key facts

• Large tile shower
• Wood look floors
• Modern bathroom

Tags

• MODERN BATHROOM
• LARGE TILE SHOWER
• PROPANE HOT AIR HEAT
• MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• HOT WATER ON DEMAND
• WOOD LOOK FLOORS

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $147,499 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $147k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 2.7% in Beacon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in NY, #385 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Haldane Central School District (town): math 65% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #84 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,649 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.10%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $77,556
• Equity at exit: $21,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $199,282
• Equity at exit: $12,753

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10516

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$184 /mo · $2,212/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $1,587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,986

Max offer price $147,499

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Locust Dr Cold Spring, NY	1.0	1.0	748	$3,995	$5.34	14d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,499 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,499 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,499 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,499 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,499 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,499 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,499 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $147,499 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $149,900 Active 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    A RARE FIND! 2015 mobile home in lovely coop community. Inside so light and bright with beautiful white cabinets. This is a wonderful home with lots of upgrades including upgraded appliances. Newer modern bathroom with large tile shower. Mini split system is 220V. Runs AC and heat. Also propane hot air furnace. Hot water on demand system. New wood look floors. Outside nicely landscaped with a covered deck. 2 Sheds, blacktop driveway and space for gardening. Low monthly lease includes taxes, garbage. Monthly fee $375 plus your taxes.. total about $550 a month. One homeowner must be 55 or over to live here. Sale includes one share of stock. Taxes, year built are approximate. Tax varies because of individual NYS programs etc. Buyer must be approved by association.

17. 2026-01-13
    historical
18. 2025-07-12
    listed $144,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$2,212
• − Insurance: −$737
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,835
• − Management: −$3,835
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable income: $18,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,360
• After-tax cash flow: $14,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed, particularly in landscaping and kitchen clutter. Value can be increased with landscaping and decluttering efforts.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation needs trimming and maintenance
• Minor Kitchen clutter — Items on countertops need to be cleared

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Aesthetic improvement and increased curb appeal
• Both Kitchen decluttering — Improved functionality and visual appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation needs trimming and maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen clutter · Items on countertops need to be cleared	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Aesthetic improvement and increased curb appeal ↑
• Both Kitchen decluttering — Improved functionality and visual appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Haldane Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613230
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,824
• Composite: 65.66/100
• National rank: #462
• State rank: #84 of 590 in NY

Livability — Beacon

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #385

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,566
• Population (ZIP): 5,607

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.80%
• Current HPI: 259.5306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Listed $144,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid